An Athletics player is running away with the American League Rookie of the Year Award; it’s just not the one we initially thought.
For most of the season, it appeared Jacob Wilson was on track for the award. Now, with two months still to go, his teammate Nick Kurtz is already the odds-on favorite.
Since the start of June, the A’s 22-year-old first baseman has been the best hitter in the sport. And to no one’s surprise, Kurtz has now vaulted to the top of our rookie power rankings.
(Note: The rankings below will be updated once a month throughout the season. Stats as of Thursday, Aug. 21.)
The Top 10
1) Nick Kurtz (1B, Athletics)
In just 85 games, Kurtz has belted 25 home runs with an OPS over 1.000. Since being activated from the injured list on June 9, he leads all qualified hitters in every slash line category and has a 1.168 OPS and 215 wRC+ — as in, he’s hitting more than 100% better than league average. Despite not making his MLB debut until late April, he leads all rookies in homers, runs, RBI, slugging and OPS. Among all MLB hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year, the only player with a higher OPS is Aaron Judge.
(Photo by Scott Marshall/Getty Images)
2) Isaac Collins (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
For all the understandable attention surrounding All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, there’s another Brewer building a much stronger Rookie of the Year case. No, Collins doesn’t throw 100 mph, and he’s not a recent second-round draft pick. In fact, he’s a 28-year-old who was drafted six years ago by the Rockies before getting selected by Milwaukee in the minor-league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 draft. But, like many players on this upstart Brewers club, he has greatly exceeded expectations and now has the batting average, on-base percentage and OPS among qualified National League rookies. He doesn’t chase, he takes his walks, he’s dangerous on the basepaths, and he’s an elite outfielder. He’s basically a microcosm of his team, perfectly epitomizing how the Brewers are doing what they’re doing.
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
3) Drake Baldwin (C, Atlanta Braves)
Not much has gone right this year in Atlanta. The emergence of Baldwin, the current favorite for National League Rookie of the Year, is an exception. Baldwin leads all qualified NL rookies in slugging, and he’s doing it as a catcher. The underlying numbers support the production. For a 24-year-old experiencing the big leagues for the first time, Baldwin is about as polished an offensive force as you could ask for at the catching position. His bat speed ranks in the 90th percentile, he hits the ball hard, he can hit for both average (.278) and slug (.455) and doesn’t strike out often. The only problem is the Braves did not find a trade partner for DH Marcell Ozuna, so they’ll have to get creative to find Baldwin as many at-bats as possible the rest of the way as he shares time behind the plate with Sean Murphy.
(Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
4) Jacob Wilson (SS, Athletics)
Wilson had a .335 batting average and .846 OPS before he was hit by a pitch on July 8. Initial X-rays came back negative, and after a few days off, Wilson returned to the lineup and even started the All-Star Game. Clearly, though, something was still not right as he went 4-for-38 over his next nine games. It turned out he had been playing through a fractured forearm. I’m leaving him in the top five here, knowing his .793 OPS would be much better if he hadn’t been impacted by the injury. For most of the year, he looked like the clear-cut top rookie in the sport, and he is back on a rehab assignment as he gets closer to building on his dazzling debut season. He hasn’t played in a month, and he still entered Wednesday with 19 more hits than the next-closest rookie.
(Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
5) Roman Anthony (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Even before his new $130 million extension, the Red Sox demonstrated how much they think of the 21-year-old top prospect by having him routinely hit toward the top of their order. After a slow start out of the gate, Anthony has looked like a star in the making with an OPS over .900 since the start of July. He has the highest on-base percentage among qualified rookies, and his hard-hit rate is through the roof. If he can lift the ball more often, he should see his power numbers soar.
(Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
6) Noah Cameron (SP, Kansas City Royals)
He may not get the same attention of other young standouts around the league, but Cameron leads all qualified rookie starters in ERA (2.47), WHIP (1.06) and bWAR (3.4). In fact, the only rookie worth more bWAR than Cameron this year is Kurtz. The left-hander is hardly overpowering, with a fastball that averages a tick over 92 mph and a strikeout rate of 19.7%, but his expansive arsenal and strong command help him avoid barrels, keep the ball on the ground and deliver steady production. He was the first pitcher since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981 to go at least six innings while allowing one or no runs in each of his first five career starts, and he has now held his opponent to two runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts.
(Photo by Steven Garcia/Getty Images)
7) Cade Horton (SP, Chicago Cubs)
The 2022 No. 7 overall pick out of Oklahoma went four straight starts from July 20-Aug. 6 without allowing a run before seeing his Cubs rookie record streak end at 28.1 consecutive scoreless innings. Horton has allowed just two runs in his last six starts and has a 0.58 ERA in that time, bringing his season ERA down to 3.08 in the process. A blister issue forced him out of his start early on Monday, so that will be something to monitor.
8) Jacob Lopez (SP, Athletics)
Lopez had a streak of 25 consecutive scoreless innings snapped on Monday, but it was yet another gem in a lengthy stretch of them. In four starts this month, Lopez is 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA. He has 32 strikeouts with three walks in 25.2 innings in August and has lowered his ERA for the year down to 3.28. Lopez ranks in the top five among qualified rookie starters in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and WAR.
9) Agustín Ramírez (C/DH, Miami Marlins)
His limitations behind the plate significantly impact his overall value, but Ramírez’s counting stats earn him a spot on this list. He leads all rookies in doubles, ranks second in homers and is tied for second in hits and RBI while splitting time between catcher and DH.
(Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images)
10) Matt Shaw (3B, Chicago Cubs)
His numbers on the season still aren’t exactly inspiring, but part of this list is meant to provide a snapshot of the best rookie right now, So, as rough a start as it was to Shaw’s big-league career, his improvements in the second half make him worthy of the final spot on these rankings. Shaw has been the best rookie hitter in the NL since the break, registering an OPS over 1.000 for a Cubs offense that has otherwise gone mostly silent, and his speed on the bases adds to his value. He ranks in the top five among rookie position players in bWAR on the season.
(Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
Honorable Mention
Carlos Nárvaez (C, Boston Red Sox)
Narvaez’s defense and early-season statistics are carrying him, as he has hit a wall in the second half. Still, he leads all rookie catchers and ranks third among all rookie position players in WAR. He has caught more runners stealing than any catcher in MLB, he is well above average in basically every catching metric, and he has still been close to a league average hitter on the season despite his downturn at the plate over the last couple months. A stronger finish to the season should have him back in the top 10.
(Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
Who Else Is Surging?
Some other notable rookies who have come on lately.
Will Warren (SP, New York Yankees)
Jakob Marsee (OF, Miami Marlins)
Luke Keaschall (2B, Minnesota Twins)
Warming Bernabel (1B, Colorado Rockies)
Ryan Bergert (SP, Kansas City Royals)
Two rookies who are still poised to finish the season strong: Warming Bernabel for the Rockies and Will Warrent for the Yankees (Getty Images)
Warren leads all rookie pitchers in strikeouts and fWAR, and he has lowered his season ERA from 4.91 to 4.25 over his last five starts. Neither Keaschall nor Marsee have logged 100 at-bats yet, but the former has a 1.210 OPS with six steals in 19 big-league games while the latter has a .338 batting average and (also) six steals in 20 games. Bernabel began the month winning Player of the Week honors in his first full week in the majors; he has fallen back down to earth since starting his career 14-for-28 with eight extra-base hits in his first seven games, but he still has an OPS near .900 in 23 games with the Rockies. Bergert, acquired by the Royals from San Diego in the Freddy Fermin deal, has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his 10 starts this year between the two clubs.
Also considered
Caleb Durbin (INF, Milwaukee Brewers); Jacob Misiorowski (SP, Milwaukee Brewers); Cam Smith (OF, Houston Astros); Colson Montgomery (SS/3B, Chicago White Sox); Heriberto Hernandez (OF, Miami Marlins); Kyle Teel (C, Chicago White Sox); Chase Burns (SP, Cincinnati Reds), Chad Patrick (SP, Milwaukee Brewers), Logan Henderson (SP, Milwaukee Brewers); Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees, OF), Jack Leiter (SP, Texas Rangers); Shane Smith (SP, Chicago White Sox); Chase Meidroth (INF, Chicago White Sox), Chandler Simpson (OF, Tampa Bay Rays), Tomoyuki Sugano (SP, Baltimore Orioles).
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
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