A landmark arbitration decision involving Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers may have ripple effects across Major League Baseball, particularly for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their young superstar Paul Skenes.
Following Skubal‘s significant arbitration victory, insiders believe the ruling could accelerate the timeline for the Pirates to potentially move their franchise ace before he ever reaches free agency.
Skubal secured a major financial win after a three-member arbitration panel ruled in his favor during hearings held in Arizona.
The Detroit Tigers had offered Skubal $19 million for his final season under team control, but the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner successfully argued for the $32 million salary he filed for during negotiations earlier in the offseason.
The decision marked one of the most notable arbitration outcomes in recent league history and highlighted the rapidly increasing value elite starting pitchers can command early in their careers.
The ruling immediately drew comparisons to Skenes and the financial challenges the Pirates could face in retaining their emerging superstar.
Per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Skubal‘s victory establishes a clear salary benchmark that may force Pittsburgh into difficult long-term decisions regarding Skenes.
“The thing with Tarik Skubal is there was even a possible debate because he wasn’t that good in the early years of his career,” Hiles said on 93.7 The Fan.
“You can’t make that counterargument against Paul Skenes. He”s literally worth whatever he says he’s worth, because he’s been the best pitcher on the plane since he arrived.”
Skenes’ star status puts Pirates on alert
Skenes has quickly developed into one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers since making his major league debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates in May 2024.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick entered professional baseball with enormous expectations and has exceeded them almost immediately.
The 23-year-old captured the National League Cy Young Award by unanimous decision during his first full major league season, further solidifying his status as one of the sport’s premier young talents.
While Skenes remains under team control for multiple seasons, arbitration eligibility represents a looming financial turning point.
Hiles indicated that labor uncertainty across the league, including the possibility of a future lockout, could intensify pressure on the Pirates to consider trading Skenes earlier than expected.
“This upcoming baseball season might be the last full season for Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh. I said that because it’s looking pretty darn clear that we’re going to have a lockout in 2027. And that’s his first year of arbitration,” Hiles added.
“I don’t see him getting paid by the Pittsburgh Pirates that big of a sum in year two. And he’s going to be able to demand something like, if not exceeding that.”
Skenes‘ early-career production strongly supports projections that he could command record-breaking arbitration salaries. Across his first two major league seasons with Pittsburgh, he has produced 13.5 wins above replacement (bWAR) while maintaining a remarkable 1.96 career ERA.
He has also finished among the top three in National League Cy Young voting in both seasons, winning the award last year after capturing National League Rookie of the Year honors the season prior.
Given that Skubal secured $32 million in his second year of arbitration eligibility with the Tigers, Skenes could exceed that figure if his dominance continues.
“If he never has a bad year, if he keeps doing what he’s doing now, and he gets into arb-two, he’s probably going to demand north of $32 million,” Hiles added.
“He may demand as much as close to $40 [million]. The Pittsburgh Pirates are just not going to pay that. I don’t care if there is a salary cap or whatever. It’s just not happening.”
Bleak reality for small-market teams
For the Pirates, the situation represents a familiar dilemma faced by smaller-market franchises attempting to retain generational talent.
While Skenes currently stands as the centerpiece of the organization’s pitching staff and long-term championship aspirations, rapidly escalating salaries could eventually force the franchise to weigh competitive ambitions against financial limitations.
As arbitration salary expectations continue to rise across the sport, Skubal‘s victory with Detroit may ultimately serve as a pivotal benchmark influencing how teams approach elite young pitchers.
It could foreshadow a critical decision about whether they can realistically build around Skenes, or whether his eventual departure becomes inevitable long before he reaches free agency.
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