In the Wild, Wild NBA Western Conference, health, not hype, will decide who reigns supreme in the 2025-2026 regular season, and ultimately which team will win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Trying to predict next season’s Western Conference standings feels less like analysis and more like survival forecasting, according to NBA analysts.
For NBA.com writer Steve Aschburner, the top finishers won’t necessarily be the ones with the flashiest stars or the most explosive offenses – they’ll be the ones that stay upright. In a conference this deep and brutal, durability, not dominance, could be the ultimate separator.
OKC, not the Lakers, is still the favorite in the West
Last year, the Western playoff race was so tight that six teams were separated by just two games. That razor-thin margin isn’t going away. The Oklahoma City Thunder may have finished 16 games clear of the field in 2024-25, but even they know one key injury could send them tumbling.
Still, with their young core led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, OKC remains the team to beat – a machine built for consistency rather than chaos. Behind them, Denver looks rejuvenated. The Nuggets‘ decision to deepen their rotation around Nikola Jokic might finally help them survive his bench minutes.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, meanwhile, has tasted playoff success and is hungry for more, though the physical toll of consecutive deep runs could become a factor. The Kevin Durant-led Rockets have offensive fireworks and young legs, but can they stay healthy enough to turn potential into postseason power?
The fragile California teams
Further down, experience meets fragility. The Clippers, while ancient by NBA standards (six players entering season 14 or later), boast depth and defensive cohesion that could keep them afloat. The Los Angeles Lakers -behind LeBron James and Luka Doncic -, Golden State Warriors, and San Antonio Spurs all enter the season with star-studded lineups and new chemistry to explore – but all have one shared concern: can they keep their stars on the floor?
For NBA.com analyst Brian Martin, the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio might be the biggest wildcards. Cooper Flagg enters his first year in the league, while Victor Wembanyama is poised for a massive leap that could end the Spurs‘ playoff drought. Yet even the smallest setbacks – a sprained ankle here, a sore hamstring there – could derail either team in the cutthroat West.
When all is said and done, it won’t be about who has the brightest spotlight. It’ll be about who has the most bodies available by April. The OKC Thunder might have the edge, but in a conference this unforgiving, the healthiest team – not necessarily the best – will be the one still standing when the dust settles.
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