There are two days in the college football offseason that are more significant than any other day, according to FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt: the day the transfer portal closes, and the day conference schedules for the upcoming season are set.
“These two days directly impact what you’re going to see from a wins and losses perspective in the fall,” Klatt said on his podcast, “The Joel Klatt Show.” “There’s no greater influence than those two days — what does your roster look like and who are you playing?”
Well, the Big Ten had its schedule release day for the 2026 season last week, with all 18 programs finding out which teams they’ll play in their conference schedule and when. In the era of super conferences, Klatt believes that schedule release days have become more vital, as teams in the Big Ten only play nine of the 17 other teams in their conference.
Which Big Ten teams saw their outlook for the 2026 season improve following schedule release day? Which Big Ten teams had their 2026 outlook take a hit following schedule release day? Here are Klatt’s three biggest winners and losers from the Big Ten’s 2026 schedule release day.
Joel Klatt’s winners and losers of the Big Ten schedule release 😲
Winners
Iowa has a game at Michigan (Sept. 26) and hosts Ohio State (Oct. 3) in back-to-back weeks. However, Klatt thinks the Hawkeyes got off easy because those games take place earlier in the season, and their schedule following those matchups gives them a path to close the season strong.
“In these super conferences, you’re never going to totally avoid tough matchups. But it matters where and when they occur. Then, in particular, what’s around it,” Klatt said. “You could look at that and be like, ‘Dang, they’ve got Ohio State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks.’ Which is true. By the way, they follow this up with a trip to Washington, which isn’t an easy place to play. You could stop there and say, ‘Iowa’s got a tough schedule.’ But there’s a bye, then they’re at Minnesota, home for Wisconsin, at Northwestern, home for Purdue, at Illinois and home for Nebraska. I don’t see another top-six team in the conference on that list.
“To me, that’s a schedule lottery win for Iowa. If they can get through that slate of their first five, which includes Michigan and Ohio State, with maybe just two losses and they can win at Washington, you’re staring at a 10-win season because the rest of your schedule isn’t entirely unmanageable.”
Iowa, who Klatt believes will be a top-25 team in the first preseason poll, also has a relatively easier non-conference schedule, with games at home against Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Northern Iowa before taking on Michigan.
“Iowa got a pretty darn good schedule,” Klatt said. “Their big non-conference game is Iowa State, and Iowa State was decimated when they lost their coach, Matt Campbell. He goes to Penn State and the entire roster basically left. So, that’s their tough non-conference game. That game now doesn’t look so tough.”
Similar to Iowa, Illinois also has a pair of games against Big Ten title hopefuls. It travels to Ohio State (Sept. 26) and hosts Oregon (Oct. 24). But because those games take place a month apart and happen before November, Klatt likes the Fighting Illini’s schedule quite a bit.
“Again, you look at this and think to yourself, ‘They’ve got to play Ohio State on the road and Oregon.’ Yup, they do. But it matters when they happen and it matters when it happens around them,” Klatt said. “Duke is on the non-conference schedule for Illinois, and they lost their quarterback. That’s a different team without their quarterback. They’ve got Purdue right after they go to Ohio State, that’s manageable. They’ve got Maryland after Oregon, traveling out to Maryland. That’s manageable. Then, the only other tough game you could say, ‘This is a top-seven or -eight team in the conference,’ is Iowa. So yeah, you have Ohio State and Oregon. But the only other tough, tough game is going to be Iowa. They’ve got that one at home.”
While Illinois wasn’t ranked in FOX Sports college football analyst R.J. Young’s Way-Too-Early Top 25, the games against Ohio State and Oregon are its only two matchups against teams in that ranking.
Klatt believes that Penn State and first-year coach Matt Campbell hit the jackpot on the Big Ten schedule lottery. After facing three non-power conference schools in its non-conference slate (Marshall, Temple, Buffalo), Penn State opens up its Big Ten schedule with two games against teams that won a combined six conference games last season (Wisconsin, Northwestern).
Penn State plays USC and Michigan after that, but Klatt thinks those games and the rest of the Nittany Lions’ conference schedule are pretty manageable.
“This thing is not difficult. It just isn’t, at all,” Klatt said. “Remember, they brought in what, 20 Iowa State transfers? It might feel a lot like Iowa State, but I can say this about Matt Campbell and Iowa State: They were a good program. They have Rocco Becht at quarterback. He’s going to be the most experienced quarterback in college football with 39 starts. That matters in this day and age.
“The teeth of their schedule is in October. They’re going to host USC. Now, USC hasn’t played well, particularly in the Big Ten and against quality opponents. You saw what happened last year at Notre Dame. … The very next week, they’ve got to go to Michigan. Those are the two toughest games they’ve got by a wide margin. Then, they’ve got a bye week before finishing the year with Purdue, at Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers and at Maryland. So, they only face two of what I would categorize as the top-six teams in the conference. It happens in October and one of them is at home. By the way, your lone really tough game on the road is at Michigan, and they’ve got a brand new coach.
With Penn State having a relatively easier schedule, Klatt also wondered if its coaching would’ve gone differently had coaches known what its path to the CFP looked like ahead of time.
“This is the absolute schedule lottery in the Big Ten,” Klatt said. “Penn State, I don’t know if their team is going to be a 10-win team. But their schedule is a 10-win schedule. That’s exactly how I would want it. If you would’ve known this schedule before the hiring process, guys would’ve clamored to take the Penn State job.”
Losers
Northwestern has three games against teams that made the College Football Playoff in 2025 — and they’re all on the road. The Wildcats have to make trips to Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State this season, and that comes after a relatively tougher non-conference slate.
“Northwestern has an absolute bear of a schedule,” Klatt said of the Wildcats, who went 7-6 in 2025. “Their opener is not easy, South Dakota State. That’s a really good program. Then, they’ve got a bye week and Colorado comes to town. But they’ve got Indiana, they host Penn State, they’re at Oregon, Iowa at home, at Ohio State. Wow. That’s not easy at all. That’s five of the top seven or eight teams in the conference right there. Northwestern, that’s a very difficult schedule for them.
“Northwestern lost the schedule lottery in a big way.”
Similar to Northwestern, Michigan also has games against the three CFP teams from the Big Ten last season on its 2025 slate. But it also has a non-conference game against Oklahoma, leading Klatt to say that Michigan’s schedule “is as difficult as any” if it plays those teams at full strength.
“They play four, really five teams in my top-seven or eight in the Big Ten and Michigan has a monster non-conference schedule,” Klatt said.
Hurting Michigan even further is that two of its marquee matchups take place in the final month of the regular season, in Klatt’s eyes.
“I talked about when games happen, they’ve got to go to Oregon and Ohio State in November,” Klatt said. “That’s an incredibly difficult schedule. This is what happens. Not only is their conference slate tough, they’ve got to face Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, but they’ve got Oklahoma as well… That’s what happened to Michigan right here. Even with a really good team, you have to say, ‘We better stay healthy in order to get to nine, maybe 10 wins.’
“I think Kyle Whittingham is a hell of a hire. I love what they did in building their roster. And I hate their schedule. There’s a few of these that you just can’t overcome.”
While Klatt thinks Michigan might have a schedule that he said could be as tough as any, he thinks its top rival has the hardest schedule in the Big Ten this season.
“Ohio State, by a wide margin, has what I would consider the toughest schedule in the Big Ten,” Klatt said. “This is what happens all before November: at Texas, at Iowa, at Indiana and at USC. Then, in November, they’ve got to face Oregon and Michigan.
“That schedule is daunting. You’ve got Indiana and Oregon, those teams might start the year [ranked] No. 1 and No. 2, maybe No. 1 and No. 3 in the country. USC’s going to be knocking on the door in the top 10. Michigan was in my top 10. Texas was in my top 10. Iowa will certainly be a top-25 team.”
Klatt also thinks that what happened with Ohio State in the transfer portal will only make its schedule tougher as 35 players left the program via the portal this offseason.
“I’m concerned about depth for them,” Klatt said. “After the portal closed and the dust settled for Ohio State, I know they didn’t lose their key stars, but they lost a lot of depth pieces and guys that I would’ve looked at on the roster and been like, ‘Man, he’s going to be a key piece to that team.’ I know they brought a lot of guys in as well, and they really like what they brought in, but depth could be an issue. As we’ve seen in college football, if you can’t stay healthy, it’s too difficult right now.”
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