Jaxson Dart has all the tools to succeed. Within the New York Giants organization, there’s palpable optimism surrounding the rookie quarterback, a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, though he still faces an adjustment period in the NFL.
Despite this, the buzz is overwhelmingly positive, with many believing he’ll make an impact from his first year in the league, trailing only two QBs with clearer paths to starting roles.
Jaxson Dart Expected to Shine in His NFL Rookie Season
That’s the assessment from ESPN’s Mike Clay, who included Dart in his detailed analysis of rookies projected to post the best numbers during their debut NFL season.
According to Clay, the only quarterback guaranteed to start in Week 1 is Cam Ward, with a similar situation for Tyler Shough, who faces little competition following Derek Carr’s retirement from the New Orleans Saints.
Clay ranks these two as the top-performing rookie quarterbacks in terms of stats:
- Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 3,392 yards, 20 TDs (15 starts)
- Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 3,020 yards, 13 TDs (13 starts)
Next comes Jaxson Dart, who begins behind Russell Wilson and possibly Jameis Winston on the Giants‘ depth chart. However, history suggests that the No. 25 overall pick is likely to make an immediate impact.
“From 2011 to 2024, 38 of 47 first-round QBs (81%) took over as the starter prior to Week 10. Twenty-three (49%) started in Week 1, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix last season. Of the seven QBs picked in the 20-32 range, six played as rookies, and four took over before Week 5. Jordan Love was the only exception since he backed up Aaron Rodgers for three seasons,” Clay writes.
In the same projection, Clay estimates Jaxson Dart will accumulate 1,968 yards and 10 TDs in nine starts, surpassing Dillon Gabriel‘s projected 1,205 yards and 5 TDs in five starts and Shedeur Sanders‘ 925 yards and 4 TDs in four starts for the season.
Keywords: Jaxson Dart, New York Giants, 2025 NFL Draft, rookie quarterback, Mike Clay, ESPN projections, Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, NFL rookie season, passing yards, touchdowns, first-round QB, Giants starter, 2025 NFL season.
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