On paper, Jake Paul stepping into a ring with former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua looks like a mismatch.
One is a 6-foot-6 Olympic gold medalist with 25 knockouts and 13 world-title fights. The other is a 6-foot-1 former YouTuber with just 13 pro bouts to his name.
Even Joshua’s promoter Eddie Hearn admits the matchup is wild, calling Paul “a madman” for taking it. But here’s the twist: several respected trainers and former champions believe Jake Paul does have a real chance to shock the world. And if you look closer, there are legitimate reasons why this could be one of boxing’s great upsets.
The biggest ones
Heavyweights equals chaos. Anytime you have two guys over 200 pounds, anything can happen. This comes from former world champion Buddy McGirt – a man who has trained legends like Arturo Gatti and Antonio Tarver. He put it bluntly:
“When you got two guys over 200 pounds, anything could happen.” That’s the nature of heavyweight-adjacent boxing. One punch changes everything. Ask Deontay Wilder. Ask Andy Ruiz Jr. Ask Lennox Lewis on the night he ran into Hasim Rahman.
McGirt even went as far as to say the fight is “50-50”, solely because Paul can punch and Joshua has been knocked out before. Is Paul better than Joshua? Not even close. But is it scientifically possible for a smaller, less-experienced puncher to land a perfect bomb? History says yes.
Jake Paul has everything to gain and absolutely nothing to lose
This might be Paul’s biggest advantage. Former cruiserweight champion Johnathon Banks summed it up: “If he has nothing to lose, he’s dangerous.” Joshua, meanwhile, has everything to lose – reputation, legacy, brand. If Paul gets stopped? He shakes it off. He’s the smaller man, the inexperienced man, the underdog by a mile.
But what if Paul lands that miracle shot? He becomes one of the most famous fighters on Earth overnight. In risk-reward terms, he’s playing with house money. And let’s remember that Joshua is not the same fighter he once was. Gloria Thornton-Peek, a veteran trainer who helped guide Claressa Shields early in her career, didn’t hold back: “Joshua’s career is in decline.”
She noted that Paul often chooses opponents who are past their prime or have been out of the game – and that Joshua fits that trend more than fans want to admit. She believes Paul has positioned himself perfectly: “He’s put himself in a good position… it’s going to make it easier for him to come out as the winner.”
Joshua is still dangerous – extremely dangerous – but not the unstoppable force he was from 2015-2018. His knockout loss to Andy Ruiz, his back-to-back defeats to Oleksandr Usyk, and the fact that he’s 36 mean that he might not be the same fighter Paul is preparing for on tape.
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