Italy – one of international soccer’s most decorated nations – is once again on the verge of missing the FIFA World Cup, with a decisive playoff match against the Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team set to determine its fate.
Despite the tournament expanding to 48 teams for this summer’s edition across Mexico, Canada and the United States, Italy remains far from guaranteed qualification.
The winner of Tuesday’s playoff advances to a group featuring Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland, while the loser is eliminated. For a nation that won four World Cups, the stakes are unprecedented.
Italy failed to qualify in 2018 and 2022 after shocking group-stage exits in 2010 and 2014 – a downturn that has shaken one of football’s proudest traditions.
Head coach Gennaro Gattuso acknowledged the magnitude of the moment after Italy narrowly defeated Northern Ireland in the playoff semifinal.
We’ve taken a small step forward,” Gattuso said. “Now we have to climb Everest.
Pressure builds amid wider decline in Italian football
Italy’s precarious position contrasts sharply with a successful stretch for Italian sports overall, explains NBC News’ analyst Andrew Greif.
Tennis star Jannik Sinner recently captured the Miami Open, while Formula 1 driver Kimi Antonelli celebrated a victory in Japan – successes that only intensified attention on the national team.
Midfielder Sandro Tonali said confidence has grown since Gattuso’s arrival but admitted the margin for error is gone.
There’s no other option but to win.
Former World Cup winners have pointed to deeper structural issues. Ex-goalkeeper Marco Amelia argued that Italy’s youth development stagnated after the 2006 triumph, while Massimo Oddo warned modernization is overdue as domestic opportunities for young Italian players shrink.
Financial trends reflect the decline
Italian clubs once dominated revenue rankings, but by 2025 only three teams from Serie A appeared among Europe’s top earners, compared with nine from the Premier League. No Italian side has won the UEFA Champions League since 2010.
Italian football icon Gianluigi Buffon, now involved in federation leadership, has reportedly indicated he could step aside if Italy misses a third consecutive World Cup.
Such an outcome, Oddo said, would be “an enormous blow.”
On Tuesday, Italy’s modern identity – and its place on football’s biggest stage – will hinge on 90 minutes.
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