Michael Cohen
College Football and College Basketball Writer
Before Illinois and Indiana take the field on Saturday night for the most anticipated Big Ten matchup of this young season — a game that carries College Football Playoff implications — it’s worth revisiting a chilly fall morning more than a decade ago that was bathed in far less pomp and circumstance, devoid of any link to national relevance or repute.
On Oct. 27, 2012, the Hoosiers limped across their western border and into Illinois having lost five consecutive games. Three of those defeats came against Ball State, Northwestern and Navy, and even the season-opening win over FCS-level Indiana State had been a battle, with Indiana ultimately prevailing by a touchdown. For second-year head coach Kevin Wilson, who later served as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State and the head coach at Tulsa, the campaign would finish with a desultory 4-8 record and a 2-6 mark in the conference.
Things were arguably even worse at Illinois under first-year head coach Tim Beckman, who took over after three impressive seasons at Toledo. The Illini were handed a humiliating 28-point home defeat to Louisiana Tech the month prior and dropped their next three Big Ten games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan by 90 combined points. They would go on to lose to Indiana, 31-17, and fail to beat a single league opponent all season, with seven of their eight conference losses reflecting double-digit margins on the scoreboard.
My, how things have changed.
Indiana has outscored its opponents 156-23 through the first three weeks of the college football season. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
When the ball is kicked this weekend at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana, where the Hoosiers have won their last 11 games, the teams involved should be viewed as nearing the cusp of college football’s upper echelon thanks to an expanded playoff for which they are unquestionably in the mix.
Indiana, now in its second season under transformative head coach Curt Cignetti, formerly of James Madison, is fresh off its largest shutout victory (73-0 over Indiana State) since 1901 and has the second-best point differential in the country at plus-133. Illinois, now thriving under charismatic program builder Bret Bielema, is still bathed in the afterglow of its first 10-win season since 2001, which, until now, was also the last time the Illini spent back-to-back weeks ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll.
Those in attendance for Saturday’s sold-out clash between No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana will be treated to the first ranked matchup between the two schools in 75 years.
“I was shocked at that,” Bielema said.
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has the Fighting Illini off to a 3-0 start. (Photo by Alex Halloway/Getty Images)
Fans might also be shocked to learn just how influential this game really is when it comes to the overall CFP landscape, even though the season is but a few weeks old. It’s growing increasingly clear that the 2025 Big Ten hierarchy includes an aristocratic triumvirate at the top in No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon — each of whom is feeling more and more like a shoo-in for the 12-team field given the early wobbles for Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida — followed by an expanding pack of challengers behind them.
The Big Ten’s secondary group, spearheaded by Illinois and Indiana, which is seeking its second straight playoff appearance, includes the likes of No. 21 Michigan, No. 25 USC, Nebraska and even Washington, with all but the Wolverines maintaining unblemished records entering Week 4.
And while it’s certainly possible for a single league to send five teams to the playoff in a given year, which is something the SEC loudly campaigned for across much of last season, trying desperately to prop up the résumés of three-loss programs Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Missouri at the expense of Indiana and SMU, the safest prognostication for the Big Ten in 2025 still includes four total bids — an automatic berth bestowed upon the league’s champion, plus three at-large spots. That’s the most realistic scenario based on an opening month when eight SEC teams and two ACC schools are ranked among the top 15 of the latest AP Poll, though inter-conference cannibalism is certainly coming.
“Last year’s history,” Cignetti said. “I don’t compare [this year] to last year. I’m totally focused on the here and now and this team. So I think we made good progress last week, and now we’ve got to have a good week of prep so we can play our best Saturday night. And I don’t look down the road at who we play.”
Curt Cignetti is 14-2 as the head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But everyone else around college football can, and will, peek at who Indiana and Illinois are facing in the coming weeks as the playoff race takes shape, and that’s where the potential problems reside. The Illini were graced with a Big Ten schedule that does not include Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa or Nebraska. They are slated to face No. 1 Ohio State at home on Oct. 11, which is as difficult a game as anyone in the conference can have, but none of Illinois’ opponents from that point forward are ranked in the AP Poll. The only Big Ten teams with easier remaining schedules, according to ESPN, are Nebraska, Maryland and Indiana.
Which brings us to the Hoosiers, who are once again polarizing thanks to a tissue paper-esque non-conference schedule. Cignetti’s team pounded Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State by a combined margin of 156-23 and was never tested beyond the first quarter of its first game.
Indiana will travel for difficult road games against Oregon and Penn State — two teams it did not play en route to reaching the playoff last season — but will avoid Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Washington and Nebraska. And unlike Illinois, which can at least claim a decent non-conference road win over Duke, the Hoosiers have played the third-easiest schedule in college football thus far, according to Pro Football Focus, ahead of only UNLV and UCF.
“Look,” Cignetti said, “last year, before the season started, we were playing favorite in three games. We were picked 17th out of 18 teams [in the preseason conference poll]. So every Big Ten game that we went into, we were an underdog before the season started, maybe with the exception of Purdue. So last year’s in the books. It’s a new year. This is a good football team.”
Few people will quibble with Cignetti over that statement, which is why Indiana is favored by 5.5 points entering Saturday’s game despite landing 10 spots lower than Illinois in the latest poll. The Hoosiers rank third nationally in total offense (591.7 yards per game), third in rushing (307.7 yards per game) and have found a transfer quarterback in former Cal standout Fernando Mendoza, who is one of only three players in the country with nine or more touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Indiana also ranks among the top 10 nationally in both total defense (220.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (7.7 points per game) under second-year coordinator Bryant Haines.
Nearly all the same superlatives can be attached to the Illini, who have reached their highest national ranking since Dick Butkus’ senior season in 1964. Their offense, overseen by stellar quarterback Luke Altmyer, has scored more points than any Illinois team in history through the first three games (135) and is one of only four units from the Power 4 conferences without a turnover, placing Illinois alongside Alabama, Houston and Rutgers in that category. The defense, coordinated by Aaron Henry, has yet to allow a rushing touchdown while also ranking tied for ninth nationally and tied for second in the Big Ten in sacks with 10.
Luke Altmyer is 17-8 as a starter at Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
“You’ve got to find players that fit your system,” Bielema said, “and I think Indiana is a case in point. They’ve done a really, really good job. Obviously, [Cignetti] brought guys with him from JMU, but now you’ve seen the addition of some other guys that have come in. I would say that we probably compete against Indiana in high school recruiting and portal windows as much as anybody else in the Big Ten, just the kind of systems we both run and the players that I think we look for. That’s unique.”
And yet, the Hoosiers will almost certainly be underdogs when they travel to Oregon and Penn State for high-profile matchups later this season, just like the Illini will be underdogs when they host Ohio State in what is probably the program’s only other marquee game between now and early December when the playoff bracket is revealed.
So even though Bielema and Cignetti are competing for players, and even though their teams will compete in front of a nationally televised audience on Saturday night, in a game with major College Football Playoff ramifications for both sides, they’re still clawing for respect in an expanded Big Ten.
To the victor go the all-important, résumé-boosting spoils.
Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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