The message was short, but the timing spoke volumes.
With less than three weeks until the NFL new league year begins on March 11, the Las Vegas Raiders are expected to release quarterback Geno Smith, according to NFL reporter Evan Sidery.
The move would prevent an additional $8 million from becoming fully guaranteed in Smith’s $26.5 million 2026 salary and clear the runway for projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza.
The financial clock is driving this decision in Las Vegas
Smith’s contract contains a key trigger. As detailed by Over the Cap, if he remains on the roster on the third day of the new league year, $8 million of his 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed.
That deadline has forced the Raiders into action.
Las Vegas is projected to carry roughly $76 million in cap space. Preserving flexibility now allows the front office to invest in protection, skill players, and defensive help around a rookie quarterback. In today’s NFL, building around a quarterback on a rookie deal often accelerates competitive windows.
Smith’s 2025 production was steady but not transformative. He finished with 3,025 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating. Solid numbers, but not the kind that pause a reset when holding the top draft selection.
A franchise turning toward Fernando Mendoza
The focus now shifts to Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner who led Indiana to a 16-0 national championship season. NFL insider Jason La Canfora has reported that the Raiders’ future is closely tied to Mendoza and that the team has no interest in trading the No. 1 overall pick.
This transition reflects alignment inside the organization.
New head coach Klint Kubiak has praised Mendoza’s composure and leadership during the championship run. Mendoza has also publicly acknowledged the influence of minority owner Tom Brady, describing him as “a football idol” and emphasizing Brady’s discipline and preparation process.
What this shift means for the Raiders
The decision marks a clear organizational pivot.
Compared to last season’s search for stability, this offseason signals long-term commitment to youth and flexibility. Avoiding the contract trigger keeps the salary cap clean and allows the front office to aggressively pursue roster upgrades in free agency.
League analysts have framed the move as calculated rather than emotional. Quarterback contracts shape team-building strategies, and the rookie-scale model remains one of the most valuable competitive advantages in the modern NFL.
What happens next in Las Vegas
The release must occur before the guarantee date to avoid the additional financial commitment. Once official, attention will turn fully toward the 2026 NFL Draft and free agency planning.
If selected first overall as widely projected, Mendoza would enter offseason workouts positioned to compete for the starting role immediately. The organization’s next task will be building protection and playmaking depth around him.
The Raiders are choosing direction over delay. The next chapter begins this March.
Contract figures verified via Over the Cap. Reporting references statements from Evan Sidery and Jason La Canfora. Player statistics reflect official 2025 season totals.
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