The final week of the college football regular season is somehow upon us already.
It seems as if it was just yesterday that we were eagerly anticipating Week 0, or watching Arch Manning struggle against Ohio State on Labor Day Weekend.
But, with plenty of great matchups, and a whole lot to be sorted out in choosing the 12 teams for the College Football Playoff, let’s take a look at this weekend’s games and try to find a potential upset in college football and in the NFL.
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No. 14 Vanderbilt @ No. 20 Tennessee
I was tempted to make a case for Michigan upsetting Ohio State once again, but while I think that game might be closer than the spread indicates, Michigan winning still seems unlikely.
Instead, let’s go back to a team — and a quarterback — that thrives in the underdog role.
Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores have rewarded bettors ever since Pavia arrived on campus last fall. Fourteen times since the start of last year, Vanderbilt has been an underdog — it is 11-3 against the spread in those games with four outright wins.
This line opened at 3.5, and bettors pounded the ‘dog to under a field goal where it now sits. If you’re planning on taking the points, you might as well wait to see if a 3 or even a 3.5 pops back up, considering 3 is such a key number.
Regardless, I expect Vanderbilt, with its Heisman-candidate quarterback and vast array of weapons on offense, to go blow for blow with Tennessee, and stick the selection committee with a very tough decision.
PICK: Vanderbilt (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Chiefs @ Cowboys
A great Thanksgiving Day game between two teams that come into this one off of incredible comeback wins in Week 12.
Not only did both teams rally from big deficits, but both perhaps saved their seasons, for the time being, with those wins. As far as this week, I’ll take the points with what appears to be a much-improved Dallas defense. Since adding some reinforcements, the Cowboys stymied the Raiders, holding them to 4.1 yards per play in a blowout victory, then held the defending champion Eagles scoreless over the final 41 minutes in a 24-21 win.
The Cowboys have an elite offense. If they can just get to league average on defense, they suddenly become a very dangerous team. The Chiefs, as much as they win, have made it a habit during the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era of doing so by narrow margins.
The loser of this game will have their work cut out for them when it comes to securing a playoff spot. I expect things to go down to the wire, but I like the new-look Cowboys.
PICK: Cowboys (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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