Favorite ‘Dogs: Back Both Commodores, Jaguars to Cover

Underdogs are everyone’s favorites. 

With both the college football and NFL seasons underway, each week we’re going to take a look at which underdogs I like most before the pigskin begins.

Let’s check out my picks from Week 3 of the college football season and Week 2 of the NFL season.

Vanderbilt Commodores @ No. 11 South Carolina Gamecocks

Let’s hope Vanderbilt can treat underdog bettors better than last week’s college upset candidate pick, Kansas, which led for much of the game, including a 21-6 advantage early on, before not only relinquishing the lead but failing to cover thanks to a late touchdown. 

Vanderbilt has been an underdog bettors’ best friend since quarterback Diego Pavia arrived on campus. With Pavia, Vanderbilt has been a ‘dog in 10 games, going an impressive 8-2 against the spread in those 10, with five outright victories. 

In addition, Vandy has been a road underdog in four games and have covered all four, with two outright wins. 

Last week, Vanderbilt again found itself catching points — 2.5 at Virginia Tech — a game in which the Commodores trailed 20-10 at halftime before unleashing a dominant 34-0 second half. 

After piling up 498 yards and 23 first downs, Vanderbilt hits the road again this week to take on South Carolina, a team that just played Virginia Tech the week prior. While Vanderbilt outgained Virginia Tech by 242 total yards on the road, South Carolina was outgained by that same Virginia Tech team in a neutral setting in Week 1. 

The Gamecocks flirted with a playoff spot in 2024 and certainly looked to be one of the 12 best teams in the country a year ago. However, part of what made last year’s team so good was a nasty defense — a defense that had three players drafted into the NFL in the first 49 picks last Apri and five players drafted overall.

Look for Pavia and Vanderbilt to be right in this game until the very end.

PICK: Commodores (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points, or win outright

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals had been 1-9 in Weeks 1 and 2 dating back to 2020, and that record nearly got worse last week against the Browns. 

Actually, let’s take it a step further: If you look at the box score from Week 1, that record should have gotten worse. 

The Browns outgained the Bengals 327-141 by game’s end, gaining 22 first downs to just 11 by Cincy. The Bengals won the game 17-16 despite gaining fewer than 10 total yards in the second half, thanks in large part to a missed field goal, as well as a missed extra point by the Browns. 

This week, the Bengals take on a Jaguars team that just dominated the Panthers — a game the Jags led 26-3 before allowing a late touchdown in garbage time, making it a 26-10 final. The Jaguars used a balanced attack that included 200 rushing yards, helping their offense achieve a 6-yards-per-play average in the victory. By contrast, the Bengals finished their game with a 2.9 yard-per-play-mark. 

I would expect Cincy’s offensive issues to get figured out, but getting 3.5 points based on what we saw in Week 1, and considering the Bengals’ early season struggles under Zac Taylor, taking the points seems like the way to go in this one.

PICK: Jaguars (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points, or win outright

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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