Talking about Josh Allen in the NFL is like talking about George Lucas in film. One transformed cinema, the other transformed a team like the Buffalo Bills into an AFC powerhouse
With Allen, the Bills run, they throw, he intimidates with his presence alone, but in the world of fantasy football that legend may not carry the same weight
Josh Allen is overrated in fantasy
Experts dare to say that Allen is overrated for the 2025 season. They base this on the numbers and the logic of the game. Many say that the data kills the story.
“No matter how well Allen played last year, three quarterbacks scored more fantasy points. And when the first quarterback selected in drafts finished third or fourth, the advantage does not offset the cost of taking him so early. And in fantasy, where points are what matters, pragmatism is what matters. Names don’t win, production wins and Allen, apparently, doesn’t have it.” Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report analyst.
At the moment, the Bills quarterback is ranked 23rd overall among his position to be drafted. That is, a second-round player, too high an investment, according to analysts.
The reasoning is clear: in fantasy, the difference in points between the best and the 12th quarterback is minimal compared to the gap that exists in running backs or wide receivers.
In 2024, for example, the gap between QB1 (Lamar Jackson) and QB12 (Bo Nix) was just 6.8 points per game. In contrast, the distance between elite RBs or WRs and weaker starters was much greater.
Baker Mayfield’s Tampa Bay mirror
Let’s look at the case of Baker Mayfield. The Tampa Bay quarterback finished with 3.2 fewer points than Allen in 2024, according to Fantasy Pros. However, his value is totally different. Mayfield was off the boards at 152nd overall, as QB22.
The moral of the story is clear: you fill up on elite runners and receivers in the early rounds and then bet late on Mayfield. Those who did the opposite had to deal with eggs and bumps in more decisive positions.
Allen’s numbers don’t translate to fantasy football
No one can deny what Josh Allen has done in the NFL. He is the only player in history with at least 40 total touchdowns in five consecutive seasons
That’s not to mention his ability to score on the ground (9.3 rushing touchdowns per season). That makes him a unique asset. But we’re talking fantasy
And in fantasy, that consistency doesn’t always mean real value relative to cost. Drafting him too high is to mortgage key picks that could go to a running back like Bijan Robinson or a wide receiver of Ja’Marr Chase caliber.
As Davenport said: “The hole you leave in your roster by spending a high pick on a quarterback is far more costly than the marginal advantage Allen might give you week to week”.Josh Allen will continue to be a spectacle every Sunday. On the field, he is the undisputed leader of a Bills team dreaming of reaching the Super Bowl. But in fantasy football, emotions must be left aside. There you don’t win with loyalty or heroes, but with statistics, cold management and calculated choices.
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