The 2025 NFL season has reached the point where contenders start to pull ahead of the rest. Six weeks in, one familiar team has climbed back into the championship picture, and the latest ESPN computer model gives them the best shot at another Super Bowl run.
In Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs looked more like their old selves with a 30-17 win over the Detroit Lions. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns and reminded everyone why he is still one of the most dangerous players in football. Even though the Chiefs sit at 3-3, ESPN’s updated Football Power Index (FPI) gives them the highest odds in the league to win it all.
According to the newest FPI projections, Kansas City has a 19.6 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl and an 11.4 percent chance to win. That puts them slightly ahead of other top teams such as the Eagles, 49ers, Bills, and Ravens, all ranked within the top five of ESPN’s model projections (ESPN FPI 2025).
Why the Chiefs Still Top the List
At first glance, it might seem odd that a team sitting at .500 could be the favorite. But the numbers make sense once playoff history and experience are factored in. The FPI expects the Chiefs to finish around 10 wins and 7 losses, which could still secure them the AFC West title.
What sets Kansas City apart is its postseason track record. Head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes have built one of the most reliable playoff teams of the past decade. The model recognizes that history, giving them a higher probability of success when the stakes rise.
It’s a formula that used to describe the Tom Brady–Bill Belichick Patriots: they knew how to win when it mattered most. Now, that same level of trust seems to belong to Kansas City.
The Chiefs still have work to do over the next few weeks, but ESPN’s data shows one thing clearly. If the playoffs started today, the numbers say Mahomes and company would once again be the team to beat.
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