Emma Raducanu knows all too well how unpredictable the US Open can be. The tournament that gave her one of tennis’s most famous underdog wins in 2021 has since been a graveyard of early exits. Now, as she returns to New York at 22, her route to the final looks every bit as punishing as it did magical four years ago.
This time, the British No. 1 could be staring down a gauntlet of top names before even dreaming of the second week. Elena Rybakina, a Wimbledon champion playing some of her sharpest hard-court tennis, and Jasmine Paolini, who just reached the final in Cincinnati, both sit in Raducanu’s quarter. Survive those matchups, and the reward is a possible clash with Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1 who has already beaten her twice this summer.
It’s a sobering reality check for Raducanu, despite encouraging signs in her recent build-up. Her first-round opponent is a qualifier, a softer opening that could finally give her the momentum she’s been chasing since lifting the trophy here as a teenager. But even with a promising start, the odds of navigating a field stacked with in-form heavyweights look slim.
Draper’s draw paints a different picture
While Raducanu faces the grind, Jack Draper’s draw reads like an open invitation. The 22-year-old, who made his first Grand Slam semifinal in New York last year, could hardly have asked for a kinder path. He begins against a qualifier, then meets either Zizou Bergs or Tseng Chun-Hsin – both players he has already beaten.
The first real test may come against Lorenzo Musetti, but the Italian has struggled badly on the U.S. hard courts this summer. If Draper maintains his current level, the runway is clear toward another marquee quarterfinal – a rematch with his friend and last year’s conqueror, Jannik Sinner. The world No. 1, fresh off his Australian Open title, remains the tournament favorite, but Draper’s big lefty game could make for an electric clash.
Elsewhere, the draw for Britain’s other hopefuls offers mixed fortunes. Cameron Norrie faces Sebastian Korda, a tough opening assignment against a crowd-backed American. Jacob Fearnley takes on Roberto Bautista Agut, while Katie Boulter opens against No. 27 seed Marta Kostyuk. Sonay Kartal will need to upset Beatriz Haddad Maia to earn a likely meeting with French Open fairytale star Lois Boisson.
The depth of British participation is clear, with Fran Jones, Jodie Burrage, Harriet Dart, Jay Clarke, and Billy Harris still battling through qualifying. But all eyes will inevitably settle on Raducanu. Her improbable 2021 run taught tennis that New York is the stage where she can shock the world. The question now is whether she can do it again – or if another first-week exit is the more likely story.
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