The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is approaching, and with it comes a once-in-a-generation prize: Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick and a franchise-altering prospect.
While teams can improve their chances through poor regular-season records, lottery night is governed entirely by chance-and history shows that some organizations have consistently been more fortunate than others when it comes to draft positioning.
This year’s top odds belong to the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, and Utah Jazz, each with a 14% shot at the first pick. Yet, past lottery outcomes suggest that actual draft night success doesn’t always align with probability.
When it comes to winning the lottery game historically, no team matches the track record of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philadelphia leads the field in lottery fortune
In reviewing all 40 NBA lotteries to date, the Sixers have moved up eight times and fallen back only once.
More impressively, they’ve gained a net total of 24 draft slots over the years-by far the most of any franchise. For context, the next closest team, the Hornets, has gained just 13.
This is especially important in 2025, as Philadelphia’s pick-currently slated at No. 5-is only protected through the sixth spot.
If it drops to No. 7 or lower, it transfers to the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, based on lottery math and the Sixers’ historical success rate, they have a 64% chance of keeping the pick.
The only franchise with a better average positional gain per lottery than Philadelphia is the Los Angeles Lakers-but they aren’t part of this year’s draw.
Among current contenders for Flagg, no team holds a stronger statistical advantage than the Sixers.
While Philadelphia leads in raw movement, the San Antonio Spurs stand out for turning their lottery wins into actual franchise success.
Despite participating in only eight lotteries, the Spurs have gained nine net slots and never improved their position by more than three places.
Yet, those modest jumps led to all-time greats: David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and Victor Wembanyama-none of whom were selected following the league’s worst record.
This year, San Antonio starts at No. 8 and holds an additional pick at No. 14, giving them two opportunities to strike gold. Their odds of landing the top pick sit at 6%, but history says that’s more than enough to dream.
Meanwhile, Charlotte’s 13-slot net gain lands them among the lottery’s luckier franchises, though their results haven’t delivered sustained postseason success. They’ll hope that changes if they land Flagg.
Mavericks, Kings, and Wizards haunted by bad lottery luck
At the other end of the spectrum are teams with historically poor outcomes on draft night-none more so than the Dallas Mavericks. They’ve never moved up in the lottery.
Entering this year’s draw at No. 11, their chance of jumping to the top is just 1.8%, and with no history of upward mobility, expectations are low.
The Sacramento Kings, sitting at No. 13, are similarly unlucky. If their pick lands outside the top 12, it goes to Atlanta.
They have only a 3.8% chance of retaining it, and over the years, they’ve moved up three times while sliding back 11-tied for the most in league history with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Wizards, despite sharing the top odds this year, enter with one of the worst lottery records. They’ve lost seven net slots in previous lotteries and fallen nine times.
Even when they did move up, the results were mixed: they used top selections on Kwame Brown, John Wall, and Otto Porter-none of whom delivered long-term success in Washington.
Of course, as last year’s draw reminded everyone, anything can happen. The Atlanta Hawks entered the 2024 lottery with a history of poor luck and jumped nine spots to claim the No. 1 pick.
That single result flipped their fortunes and added six net slots to their overall lottery record.
On Monday night, the ping pong balls will decide where Cooper Flagg begins his NBA career. History can offer clues, but in a lottery that resets every year, one bounce is all it takes to change everything.
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