College Football Playoff Predictions: First-Round Winners to The National Champion

The biggest game in the history of the state of Oklahoma comes on Friday. No, I ain’t laying it on thick, and I ain’t engaging in highfalutin hyperbole.

It’s bigger than Game 7 of the NBA Finals when the Oklahoma City Thunder won the franchise’s first title at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City in June. 

It’s bigger than Oklahoma softball clinching an NCAA four-peat and winning the Sooners’ eighth national title in the sport at Devon Park in Oklahoma City.

It’s the College Football Playoff first-round game between No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 9 Alabama.

[MORE: Top 5 Heisman Candidates for 2026]

As both the founding of the University of Oklahoma and its football team predate statehood, there has never been a bigger sporting event in state history than the CFP game that will be played on the same soil where stakes were planted in the ground to claim what is ours; on top of red dirt where Yankees can’t cut it, where neither tornado nor political tumult has run us Oklahomans off.

There has never been a bigger event in the state, especially in the sport we Oklahomans decided long ago is the tool for which we will be heard, our respect will be paid and OU has once again earned a chance to stand center-stage. 

But this time the game’s at home, and it’s in front of us Okies who call that team our birthright. That’s what the first round of the CFP is about, what the postseason is best at and what the sport has craved since the dawn of its TV era.

That said, here are my CFP bracket predictions:

First Round

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday, Dec. 19) 

Winner: Oklahoma

(Butch Dill/Getty Images)

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables is undefeated (5-0) when he’s calling the defense in rematches. 

That record dates back to 2000 when the Sooners upset No. 2 Kansas State during the regular season and earned a 27-24 win against Bill Snyder’s Wildcats in the Big 12 championship game en route to the national title. In the latest example of Venables’ prowess in rematches, after Clemson lost the first meeting in 2020 against Notre Dame, 47-40, in overtime, then-defensive coordinator Venables helped lead the Tigers to a 34-10 victory against the Fighting Irish.

That the Sooners beat the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, 23-21, less than a month ago should only serve to embolden Oklahoma, a team that has built its success in the second half of the season almost exclusively on Venables’ play-calling and the play of his defense.

[MORE: Hypothetical 24-Team College Football Playoff Bracket]

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Winner: Miami

(Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

The Hurricanes have played outstanding football since losing to Louisville in October, and their weakest unit is the one featuring a former SEC champion quarterback, Carson Beck, and, perhaps, the most explosive player south of the Mason-Dixon Line, Malachi Toney. 

Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman deploys a defense that ranks No. 6 in scoring defense (13.8), No. 7 in rushing defense (86.8) and No. 11 in total defense (277.8). Miami has outscored its last four opponents 151-41 and has a defensive line that is fit to frustrate Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed. 

Reed isn’t just the reason the Aggies mounted the largest comeback win in SEC history when they overcame a 30-3 halftime deficit to beat South Carolina in mid-November. He’s also one of the reasons they were trailing the Gamecocks by that margin at all.  He threw two interceptions and could’ve easily thrown as many as six in the first half before he came out of the locker room with a cape around his neck and a metaphorical Superman “S” on his chest.

The Aggies signal-caller has also shown himself to be susceptible to throwing the ball to people who ain’t on his sideline — notably opposing defenders. He has thrown six interceptions in Texas A&M’s last five games. Hetherman watched that tape. He watched the tape against Texas in the Aggies’ only loss and the tape against Notre Dame in the Aggies’ narrow win. Reed will have to play mistake-free football on Saturday to lead Texas A&M past Miami.

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Winner: Ole Miss

(Justin Ford/Getty Images)

Ole Miss outclassed Tulane on September 20 when the Rebels rolled the Green Wave, 45-10, in Oxford. Even without coach Lane Kiffin on the sideline now, there’s little reason to believe Tulane can win this game, which features one of the best offensive units in the country led by SEC Newcomer of the Year and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.

He’s that good. 

Chambliss, a former Division II Ferris State passer, put up more than 400 yards of offense — including 307 passing yards — and two touchdowns in the victory against Tulane just three months ago.

Since his first start at the FBS level against Arkansas, he’s played like a Heisman finalist. Against the Razorbacks, he threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns. By the end of the regular season, he’d thrown for 300 yards seven times, passed for more than 3,000 yards and rushed for more than 500 in just 10 starts.

Now, he’s four wins away from leading Ole Miss to its first national title and his second in as many years.

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Winner: Oregon

(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The last time Oregon got to play a Group of 5 team in the postseason, the Ducks pummeled Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl, 45-6. The Flames led that game 6-3 after the first quarter on New Year’s Day 2024, and that would be as close as they came to defeating the Ducks, who seemed to see Liberty’s spirited start as a personal attack on anatidae everywhere.

Quarterfinals

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.