Finally, the College Football Playoff has arrived. I think this year’s bracket shapes up to be a good one, and we should have a pair of really good games this weekend.
Before the action kicks off on Friday, let me be the latest person to make first-round picks and my bracket prediction for this year’s CFP. Admittedly, the picks against the spread I’ve made on the “Joel Klatt Show” haven’t been tremendous this year, going 36-40. But we went 8-3 in our picks against the spread in the CFP last year, so let’s hope for some playoff magic again.
Remember, home teams all won in the first round by double digits. So, let’s keep that in mind as we preview these matchups.
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday, 8 p.m. ET)
Bama’s been dealing with a lot. It’s dealing with some distractions. The last time we saw Alabama, Georgia was beating it down pretty handily. Then, you’ve got all the talk about what Ty Simpson’s going to do with his future, and obviously, Kalen DeBoer’s name is being thrown around. He’s had to make comments and statements about his commitment to Alabama. I’ve always said the quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted. So, the distraction meter for Alabama, is it going to play a part in this game? We don’t know.
Alabama hasn’t looked great in the last month, particularly Ty Simpson throwing the football. In the last four games, he’s been under 60% and averaging just 200 yards per game and has only thrown five touchdowns. That’s not going to cut it. This is a guy who has to be throwing the football really well because it’s been a one-dimensional team. Because of that, this is a tough matchup against OU and it’s really why OU won that matchup at Tuscaloosa late in the season.
This defense for Oklahoma is a relentless, attack-oriented style of defense. It’s tied for the lead in sacks in the country with Texas A&M. It has 41 sacks on the year. It’s behind the line of scrimmage a ton. In fact, Oklahoma is in the top five in college football in terms of blitz rate.
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In that first meeting, Bama had some success — at least from a yardage perspective. It outgained OU by nearly 200 yards, but it turned it over three times and it a lot of it was because of that attacking style of defense. OU turned those three turnovers into 17 points. That was 17 of its 23 points and Oklahoma won the game.
This game being in Norman is a big deal. I don’t think we, as a college football consumer, truly understand in the infancy of the 12-team playoff what home playoff games actually mean. Last year, it was a drastic difference. The home teams and environments were incredible. I’ve long said that home-field in college football is one of the great advantages in all of sports. A lot of that is great teams at home with a great environment tend to play well, and it’s really tough to win on the road. That’s why I was surprised Bama was favored by 1.5 points.
But OU really struggles on offense. That’s the only thing that gives me a lot of concern for Oklahoma. Oklahoma is elite in two of its three units, in fact it has the Groza Award winner at kicker (Tate Sandell). But its offense has been a bit suspect in the back half of the year, ever since quarterback John Mateer had that hand injury. He just hasn’t been the same. It’s largely been short fields and turnovers creating points for Oklahoma, with some explosive plays. It’s been very little driving the ball methodically down the field. I don’t think Oklahoma is going to be able to do that against a Bama defense that’s played pretty well in the back half of the year.
The biggest question is if Oklahoma can score. What’s the offense going to do? Will it need to do a lot? I think because of the environment and Oklahoma’s pass rush, it’s going to be very difficult for Alabama to throw the ball sustainably without running it. Alabama hasn’t shown the ability to be balanced on offense.
Let’s not forget this, either. This Oklahoma fanbase has been waiting for this moment since that Sunday morning Lincoln Riley left for USC. I’ve got goosebumps thinking about how electric the Palace on the Prairie will be on Friday.
Pick: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 17 (Oklahoma +1.5)
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (Saturday, noon ET)
This is a great matchup at the line of scrimmage. When Miami has the ball, we get to see two first-team All-Americans go at it. Miami’s right tackle Francis Mauigoa is phenomenal, and he’s going to go up against Cashius Howell, who is one of the great pass rushers we’ve got in college football. He splits time on each side, so he’ll go up against Mauigoa and that’s a terrific NFL-like matchup.
It’s also a key matchup for this game. Maugoa will need to control Howell because one thing Miami hasn’t done really well is run the football. A&M’s run defense isn’t great, but Miami doesn’t particularly sustain its run game very well. Can Miami quarterback Carson Beck move the ball down the field? On the other side, Miami defensive linemen Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor going up against that Texas A&M offensive line will be a great matchup. This is a line-of-scrimmage-oriented game.
I’ve got more questions about Miami in this game than Texas A&M. Miami’s lack of a run game makes me a bit nervous. What Beck are you going to get on the road? If you can’t complement him with a run game, then you’re forcing Beck to throw against a pass rush that’s sacked the quarterback 41 times. That’s a problematic equation to try and win on the road. It’ll need to sustain the run game, get a lead early and try to take the crowd out of the game.
Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. is widely viewed as one of the top prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Both quarterbacks are good players, but have been a bit streaky. We saw that with Beck and all of his turnovers against Louisville. Texas A&M and Marcel Reed have been on a poor streak of turning the ball over in the last three games. That can’t happen. Ultimately, I think this game will come down to which quarterback can play clean. The quarterbacks don’t even need to be great.
My hunch is that Reed would be the pick there, because he’s at home, a better run game and elusiveness. Miami’s struggled at times at corralling elusive quarterbacks. So, Reed’s got more at his disposal. If Miami can’t run it, Beck’s going to be sitting in the pocket against the nation’s best pass rush on the road.
I think the home-field advantage is going to be too much for Miami, and the pass rush leads the way for Texas A&M.
Pick: Texas A&M 28, Miami 24 (Texas A&M -3.5)
No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
These teams played in September and Ole Miss won that matchup, 45-10. How does the Lane Kiffin situation affect Ole Miss? I think it’ll actually bring them closer together, creating a better environment in that statement. Having Charlie Weis Jr. at offensive coordinator still brings some cohesiveness, so I don’t think Ole Miss will miss much.
Tulane’s pass defense also isn’t where it needs to be. It ranks 123rd in the nation at stopping the pass, and now it takes on Trinidad Chambliss and this explosive Ole Miss offense. Ole Miss had the fourth-most plays of 25 yards or more this season. If there is a worry for Ole Miss, Kiffin’s a phenomenal playcaller, and building a game plan and calling plays are two different things. Ole Miss will miss that, maybe not in this game, but at some point in the CFP. Ole Miss is great at home. It’s won 21 of its last 22 in Oxford.
Ole Miss quartrback Trinidad Chambliss has been one of college football’s biggest surprises this season. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Tulane’s also dealing with an unusual head coach situation, but Jon Sumrall is coaching this game after accepting the Florida job. Still, that’s a bit of a distraction for Tulane.
Ole Miss should win this game. This is too big a task for Tulane. This Ole Miss team is pretty incredible.
Pick: Ole Miss 35, Tulane 14 (Ole Miss -17.5)
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
Oregon is favored by 21.5. Wild! That’s a big number.
But I think it’s eerie how quiet things have been in Eugene over the last few weeks. We haven’t heard much about Oregon. It’s like it has something up there brewing for all of us. Let’s not forget that Oregon was the No. 1 seed last year, had a bye, went to the Rose Bowl and lost to Ohio State.
I think the Ducks have a major chip on their shoulder. They’ve been waiting since the Rose Bowl to get back to this point. Oregon’s unbelievable at home. It took a great performance from Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner, and No. 1 Indiana to beat Oregon in Eugene this year. Oregon’s 44-2 in its last 46 home games.
James Madison is a really good team. I don’t want to take anything away from James Madison. In fact, I think James Madison is the better Group of 5 team in this playoff, ranking in the top 10 in the scoring offense and defense. The Dukes’ rushing attack is the fifth-best in the country, with Sun Belt leading rusher Wayne Knight out of the backfield. They’ve got a dual-threat quarterback in Alonza Barnett III. He can get things done, but I think he’s going to have to play out of his mind for them to even have a chance in this game.
Dante Moore has provided a steady hand at quarterback for Oregon this season. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Oregon has one of the best run games in the country. From a film standpoint, if you watched the last five or six games, I think Oregon’s been the best rushing team in the country. I don’t know what the numbers exactly say, but Oregon is running the ball incredibly well. Statistically, James Madison has one of the best rush defenses in the country. But that largely came against the Sun Belt.
I think Oregon’s going to be able to run it and quarterback Dante Moore should be able to throw it around. If I had to pick one team playing this weekend that has the best chance to win the national championship, it’d be Oregon.
Pick: Oregon 42, James Madison 17 (Oregon -21.5)
Joel Klatt’s Bracket Prediction
Quarterfinals
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
I think Dan Lanning’s got something up his sleeve, but this should be an epic game. Oregon wins a tight game. I wish I could move both teams, but I can’t.
Pick: Oregon
Rose Bowl: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Indiana
Indiana is just really good and really balanced. OU wouldn’t be able to score against that Indiana defense, particularly because it won’t be able to create explosive plays against that layered zone defense that the Hoosiers run.
Pick: Indiana
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Georgia’s playing great football. I think it would beat Ole Miss. This is probably where you see the Kiffin effect come into play for Ole Miss. The Rebels wouldn’t have Kiffin calling plays against that great Bulldogs defense, which is starting to play really well.
Pick: Georgia
Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
This would be a phenomenal game, and begs the question of why we are doing neutral sites for the quarterfinals. Ohio State moves on, though, because I think it’ll fix the short-yardage and red zone issues it had against Indiana.
Pick: Ohio State
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Semifinals
Peach Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Indiana
I think Indiana wins the rematch from the regular season. There’s something about this Indiana team — it can run the ball, throw the ball and I think it will end Oregon’s season.
Pick: Indiana
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Georgia’s excellent, but I think Ohio State gets the better of the Dawgs. I can’t pick Georgia here because Ohio State’s defense is too elite, fast and multiple.
Pick: Ohio State
National Championship Game
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Indiana
We’ve got another rematch. Unlike the other rematches in this tournament, though, I see the result of this game going differently the second time around. I think it’d be tough to beat the Buckeyes twice.
Pick: Ohio State
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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