No SEC in sight. No Ohio State, no Penn State and no Michigan.
The College Football Playoff championship oddsboard includes none of the usual suspects.
To say oddsmakers are surprised would be an understatement. Back in August, when this season kicked off, no one was considering a Miami-Indiana matchup for the national title.
“I would’ve thought you were crazy,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading for Caesars Sports. “These are two teams that were at long-shot odds at different points of the season. Indiana was 125/1 in September. Miami was 200/1 on Dec. 2, when it looked like the Hurricanes wouldn’t make the Playoff.
“Now, we’re sitting here with Miami vs. Indiana for the national championship. It culminates the craziness of this season. The SEC had a down year, and there’s a new top of the Big Ten.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on CFP championship game odds for Monday night’s showdown.
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High on the Hoosiers
Indiana enters the title game at 15-0 straight up (SU) and a respectable 10-5 against the spread (ATS). Miami is 13-2 SU and mirrors the Hoosiers at 10-5 ATS.
The Hurricanes are on a seven-game win streak and have covered the spread in their last four games. Indiana has covered four in a row, as well.
On Jan. 9, following Indiana’s 56-22 wipeout win over Oregon and Miami’s 31-27 thriller over Ole Miss, Caesars opened the Hoosiers as 7.5-point favorites vs. the Hurricanes.
That was after taking into consideration that the national championship game is on Miami’s home turf, at Hard Rock Stadium.
“The market didn’t seem to think there’s an advantage to Miami playing on its home field,” Feazel said.
In fact, the point spread grew larger. Last weekend, Indiana stretched out to -8.5, and that’s where it remained Friday afternoon, three days before kickoff.
But that number just might go a little higher.
“I think 9 is gonna be the high. We’re close to the peak,” Feazel said. “It’s one-way traffic. It’s been all love for Indiana so far.
“And who can blame them? Indiana hasn’t played a close game in the Playoff. Anybody who’s been riding the Indiana train since the Big Ten Championship Game is rolling it over to the next game.”
That’s not to say there’s no Miami money. And Feazel expects professional bettors to come in late on the Hurricanes.
“The sharps haven’t gotten involved so far. But I’m anticipating some sharper play come Monday, and this line might close closer to 7,” Feazel said.
Total Tally
Caesars opened the Miami-Indiana total at 48 and initially nudged up to 48.5. But as of Friday afternoon, it was down to 47.5, in a market that saw early respected action.
“There’s sharp money on Under 48.5,” Feazel said. “But on every championship game, the sharper side is on the Under, and the public is gonna be all over the Over.”
And the public betting masses far outnumber professional bettors. So don’t be surprised to see the total tick back up to 48 or 48.5. Without question, Caesars and sportsbooks across the nation are rooting for a low-scoring game.
Built For The Futures
College Football Playoff futures odds also play a big role in what bookmakers need in the title game. And there’s an interesting dichotomy to how these two teams were bet in CFP championship futures.
In mid-September, when Indiana was available at +12500 (125/1), bettors didn’t jump on a golden opportunity to wager on the Hoosiers. Indiana was fully eclipsed by Big Ten favorites Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon.
On the flip side, in late November and early December, it looked as if Miami wouldn’t make the 12-team field. The Hurricanes’ odds got as long as +20000 (200/1) at Caesars.
But enough prescient bettors jumped on those long-shot odds to make Miami a liability at multiple sportsbooks, including Caesars.
“Miami is a loser for us, a small liability, because of the higher odds it had later in the season. We wrote a lot of action on Miami,” Feazel said. “Indiana is a good futures result. So we’re rooting for Indiana to win the game and Miami to cover.”
CFP Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is taking a position on CFP championship game odds. Actually, two positions, though both on the same team.
Stone understands the betting public’s infatuation with undefeated Indiana but believes the value rests with two-loss underdog Miami.
“Indiana is both a great story and a great football team. But it’s not invincible,” Stone said. “The Hoosiers had to rally late to win at both Iowa and Penn State, and neither were ranked at the time.”
Stone said Miami’s ability to pressure the quarterback will be critical to its success against Indiana. The Hurricanes lead the nation with 47 sacks, including 10.5 from projected NFL first-rounder Akeem Mesidor, and 8.5 from Rueben Bain Jr.
“If Miami can consistently disrupt Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and take him out of his comfort zone, I like the Hurricanes’ chances to cover the number and possibly even win outright.”
Stone recommends dividing a unit — whatever your standard bet size is — on Miami +8.5 on the point spread and Miami +290 on the moneyline.
“I’d put 60 to 70% of my wager on Miami plus the points, and the remainder on the Hurricanes on the money line,” Stone said.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There are countless championship futures bets on the two finalists in the CFP odds market. Most of those plays aren’t major wagers but still stand to pay out major money.
In late November and early December, when Miami was thought to be out of CFP contention, a Hard Rock Bet customer put $500 on the Hurricanes +10000 (100/1) to win it all.
Now, that bettor is just one upset away from a $50,000 payday. Not a bad position to be in.
Months ago at DraftKings Sportsbook, a customer put $2,000 on Indiana +12000 (120/1) to win the CFP.
Then the bettor thought, “Why not add a little more?” So the same customer threw another $416.67 on Indiana +12000.
If the Hoosiers deliver a win Monday night, then the bettor banks $290,000 in profit (total payout $292,417.07).
One of those two bettors will give further proof to the adage: Good things come to those who wait.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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