The Buffalo Bills came within three points of a Super Bowl berth in the 2024 season, only to watch it slip away in the closing moments of the AFC Championship Game.
Facing a critical fourth-and-five with just two minutes remaining, MVP quarterback Josh Allen found second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid open over the middle. The ball was on target. The game, and potentially the season, was in Kincaid’s hands. But the pass was dropped, and the Kansas City Chiefs ran out the clock to secure the win and advance to the Super Bowl.
The key to Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl hopes
The drop ended a season that had promised so much for Buffalo.
And while Kincaid absorbed the weight of the moment, Allen stood by his young teammate.
“He can sit there and think about that play over and over, but I got to be better for him,”Allen said postgame.
“That’s what it comes down to, and get him more involved.”
He added, “I didn’t feel like I put him in enough good situations this year, ball-placement-wise.”
Allen’s self-critique wasn’t without merit.
Over the season, the connection between quarterback and tight end never fully clicked.
Kincaid, entering his third year on a four-year rookie deal, saw only 69 percent of his 81 targets deemed catchable.
On deeper routes, passes of 10 yards or more, the catchable rate dipped to a troubling 37 percent, according to Fantasy Points.
NFL analyst Joe Marino noted that the pair had the highest rate of uncatchable targets in the league.
“You’re still developing chemistry with a lot of different players,” Marino said on his Locked On Bills podcast.
“And maybe you take for granted that Kincaid was an established player, but still a young guy that you needed to evolve with.”
To complicate matters, Kincaid’s early NFL development occurred under former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was dismissed midway through the 2024 season.
The offensive reset didn’t help establish trust or rhythm between the two.
Still, there is optimism for 2025.
Despite a dip in raw stats during an injury-affected Year 2, Kincaid’s efficiency metrics improved.
With limited additions to the receiving corps this offseason, he’s poised for a breakout, if the chemistry with Allen finally aligns.
Buffalo’s Super Bowl window remains open, but only just.
To take that final step, the Bills must repair the connection between their MVP quarterback and the tight end drafted to be a game-changer.
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