Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Late last week, news broke that Aaron Rodgers would finally sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The 41-year-old QB followed up by inking a one-year, $13.65 million contract Saturday.
And bookmakers responded with a collective yawn.
At most sportsbooks, the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds didn’t move an inch. That’s because any moves were made months ago, anticipating the Rodgers signing.
“It was the worst-kept secret in sports,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said Wednesday.
Bettors are generally nonplussed, as well. Mucklow serves up his insights on Rodgers’ impact — or lack thereof — in multiple NFL odds markets.
Middle of the Pack
In early February, Caesars Sports opened Pittsburgh as a +7000 long shot in Super Bowl odds. Right after the Super Bowl, and with Rodgers rumors already in motion, the Steelers shortened to +5500. In early March, the number moved to +4000.
It’s been stuck there ever since, 16th among the 32 NFL teams.
“We’ve only written about 2% of tickets on the Steelers,” Mucklow said, while noting the Steelers are a liability for the book, but only due to their longer odds. “They are a winner for the customers. They’re not the biggest loser for us, though.”
Mucklow likes the Steelers, but he’s tempering his expectations, even with a lock Hall of Famer now at quarterback.
“I would like to see the Steelers do well. They’re a popular team, and I’m a huge fan of Mike Tomlin,” Mucklow said. “Do I think they can improve? Yes. But with Rodgers, I’m just mindful that Father Time usually wins that race.”
What are the expectations for Aaron Rodgers with the Steelers?
Long-Shot MVP
Caesars waited until after Rodgers’ signing before adding him to the NFL MVP odds market. So it’s only been a few days, but action so far is tepid on the Steelers’ new quarterback.
“We’ve written a couple tickets on Rodgers at +6000. He’s a good result for the book,” Mucklow said.
Interestingly, Caesars’ biggest MVP concern just departed Pittsburgh.
“The best result for customers and our worst liability is Justin Fields, whom Rodgers just replaced in Pittsburgh,” Mucklow said.
Last season, Fields started six games for the Steelers. He’s now QB1 with the New York Jets, Rodgers’ team of the past two seasons.
In another awards market, even an attractive long-shot number isn’t luring Rodgers action.
“We haven’t written a single ticket on Rodgers as NFL Offensive Player of the Year, at 150/1,” Mucklow said.
If you’re feeling frisky, then a $100 bet at those +15000 odds would return a $15,000 profit, should Rodgers have a bang-up season and win the award.
The Tomlin Effect
There’s at least one market in which Caesars is seeing positive action on the Steelers: season win totals.
“There’s a lot of interest in Over 8.5 wins. That’s not necessarily because of Rodgers but because of Tomlin, who’s never had a losing season,” Mucklow said.
Indeed, in 18 years at the helm, Tomlin has 15 winning seasons and finished 8-8 three times. With a 17-game schedule, 8-8 is no longer possible. The Steelers went 10-7 each of the past two seasons.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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