Bookmaker on March Madness liabilities: ‘I’ll take an early Auburn exit’

After a grueling six-month wheelspin on college football and the NFL from late August to early February, Las Vegas bookmakers get a much-needed breather to recharge their batteries for a few weeks.

Then comes March Madness.

Then it’s The Masters.

Then it’s the NBA and NHL playoffs.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s focus on March, the busiest college basketball month of all. And sure, sports betting is legal in almost 40 states, but Americans still flock to Vegas to bet buckets with their buddies.

Conference tournaments are already in full swing, with the bigger tournaments like the ACC, Big Ten and SEC wrapping up later this weekend.

Duke is a massive favorite to cut down the nets in Charlotte and I saw the Blue Devils -325 at DraftKings and -350 at FanDuel to take care of business.

“I’ve got ‘em four dollars [-400],” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told FOX Sports from his backroom office.  

“Clemson is one of those teams sneaking up on people a little bit and Louisville is pretty good, too. But then it’s a steep drop-off to the rest. Virginia and Wake Forest are down. Obviously, North Carolina is way down the list. It says more about the rest of the conference than anything else.

“And, of course, Clemson and Louisville would meet in the semis, so Duke only has to beat one of them to win it. It’s tough to find value betting any of these futures, especially when you’re going against a big favorite like Duke. You’re just hoping somebody knocks ‘em off along the way.”

Michigan State is favored to win the Big Ten with Maryland a close second, then four teams — Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA and Illinois — are sitting around 7/1 with the order varying by shop and the needs of said shop.

“We got a little play on Maryland and UCLA,” Andrews reported. “Both teams are legit. I think it’s wide-open and there’s nothing we’re sweating.”

Many pundits view Duke and Auburn as near-numerical equals, but it was very interesting to peep the Tigers’ odds to win the mighty SEC. Auburn was a consensus +150 almost everywhere in America, followed by Florida, Alabama and Tennessee. And that order was almost universal.

“If there’s a team that can come out of nowhere and win a few games, I think it’s in the SEC,” Andrews said. “There’s so much talent. They did bet me Auburn and Florida a little bit. In terms of liability, it’s small potatoes.”

As for the Big Dance, Andrews loves leaning into his creative side for marquee events, and he came up with a fun proposition for this March.    

“I have a prop up on the SEC vs. The Field for the NCAA Tournament,” he explained. “I’m down to -125 on The Field right now. I opened -160 and the first guy — he’s a sharp kid — came in and laid -160, so I went up to -175. Since then, it’s been all SEC money.”

SEC Tournament Betting Guide

The South Point is also offering -105 each way on tournament sides from the Sweet 16 through the national championship. Great deal.

Expert bracketologist Jerry Palm has Duke, Auburn, Houston and Florida as his four No. 1 seeds, an order Andrews agrees with. It’s rare when the brackets and ratings line up one through four, but that is the case this year.

“I have Duke a slight favorite over Auburn,” Andrews said. “Maybe -2. Then it’s Houston a couple points behind Auburn, then Florida.”

Where’s Gonzaga?

“I don’t care who you are, you don’t want to play Gonzaga in the second round,” Andrew said. “That’s a tough game. Gonzaga does the little things right. I love how they fight through picks. They’re a solid, well-disciplined team with a coach that knows how to win in the tournament.”

Last but not least, let’s talk liability.

People love reading about what the sportsbooks are rooting against, so I lobbed Andrews a 16-inch softball, right over the plate.

Who does he want eliminated ASAP?

“We’ve got a couple shops right on the Arizona border in Mesquite,” Andrews said. “There’s a decent amount of Wildcats action.”

I laughed and made a joke about it being local money.  

“It’s still money!” Andrews cracked back. “If I was booking in Pennsylvania, I would probably be rooting against Pitt and Penn State.

“I’ll take an early Auburn exit,” he continued. “That’s not a good result. I opened Auburn 22-1 and took a pretty good bet. I went to 12, and they bet that, too. They’re all the way down to around 3-1 right now.

“I hope Auburn gets Gonzaga in Round 2.” 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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