NFL futures bets often revolve around success, primarily via wagers on Super Bowl odds. There’s plenty of action on AFC and NFC championship odds, as well.
What’s unusual is making a futures bet on the projection of exactly when a playoff team will fail.
More unusual: an eight-leg parlay on such an occurrence.
But months ago, a FanDuel Sportsbook customer did just that. And the predictions for failure proved a smashing success.
More on that play, other notable parlay payouts, fun bets and major wagers, as we recap NFL betting from last weekend.
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Winning on Losers
Hitting an eight-leg parlay in any market is an improbable outcome at best, be it on point spreads, moneylines, player props or futures odds.
What made this ticket more incredible is that the bettor first had to accurately predict those eight teams would reach the postseason.
Preseason, three of them could surely be considered iffy — the Bears, Jaguars and Steelers. And with injuries and such, there’s always the prospect of a legit playoff-caliber team missing the postseason.
So the FanDuel customer first cleared that hurdle, on a modest bet of $33.81 and hefty odds of +30374, or just shy of 304/1.
Then the bettor got a good sweat on three of the five wild-card legs, starting with the Packers. Green Bay was up 21-6 through three quarters but imploded and lost 31-27, as the Bears scored 25 fourth-quarter points.
The Jaguars lost 27-24 after a Bills’ touchdown with just 1:04 remaining, and the Eagles fell 23-19 after a Niners TD with 2:54 remaining.
But the Bears provided the biggest sweat of that bet, in the final game of the Divisional Round. Comeback kid Caleb Williams unleashed a fourth-down Hail Mary prayer that was answered by Cole Kmet’s touchdown catch to tie the Rams at 17.
That forced overtime. However, Chicago ultimately lost a heartbreaker 20-17.
And that clinched a wild winner for the bettor, turning a nominal 34 bucks into a five-figure payday of $10,303.49.
The First Shall Be First
A Fanatics Sportsbook customer put $25 on a two-leg parlay of the first touchdown scorer in each of Sunday’s two games.
The nominees: Patriots wideout DeMario Douglas and Rams running back Kyren Williams.
Putting Douglas in that parlay was key — rather than, say, Stefon Diggs or Rhamondre Stevenson — as it helped stretch out the odds to a healthy +16700 (167/1).
Douglas hit paydirt with 9:35 remaining in the first quarter, giving New England a 7-0 lead vs. Houston.
In the Rams-Bears game, the wait was a bit longer, but the result was just as satisfying. Williams scored on a 4-yard run to put Los Angeles up 7-0 with 6:20 left in the first quarter.
So the bettor’s $25 turned into $4,200. Not a bad day’s work.
Ask and You Shall Receive(r)
A FanDuel customer spread out an anytime touchdown parlay among all four Divisional Round games, picking one wide receiver in each matchup.
The bet: all of $10. The odds: a long-shot +64795, approaching 650/1.
Keon Coleman scored in the third quarter of the Bills’ 33-30 overtime loss to the Broncos. Then Rashid Shaheed didn’t make the bettor wait long at all for Leg 2, returning the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown in the Seahawks’ wipeout of the 49ers.
Kayshon Boutte created a modest sweat, but reached the end zone early in the fourth quarter of the Patriots’ 28-16 win over the Texans. And Bears wideout D.J. Moore wrapped it up with a second-quarter TD in a 20-17 loss to the Rams.
And that’s how you turn 10 bucks into $6,489.56. If only it were really that easy.
Here’s Hoping You Had It
The Bills have plenty of players whom you’d pick to score the first touchdown of the game, starting with QB Josh Allen and running back James Cook.
Far less expected would be Mecole Hardman Jr., a backup wideout. Hardman joined the Bills in November but only played in two games, with zero receptions, before he was let go on Dec. 27.
However, Buffalo re-signed Hardman to the practice squad on Dec. 30, and he’s now active for the playoffs. Very active, in fact.
In Saturday’s game vs. Denver, Hardman was +11000 (110/1) at DraftKings Sportsbook to score the first touchdown. And at least one bettor took a $25 flier on those long-shot odds.
In the waning seconds of the first quarter, Hardman caught a 4-yard pass from Allen to put the Bills up 7-3.
At 110/1 odds, that wager would’ve netted $2,750 in profit. However, the bettor utilized a 25% profit boost, hiking the odds to +13750 (137.5/1).
That bumped the total payout to $3,462.
But even if you’d just put a tenner on that prospect, without the profit boost, you would’ve cashed out for a tidy $1,100.
At Fanatics Sportsbook, Seahawks wideout Kenneth Walker III was +3500 to score three or more touchdowns. And he hit paydirt three times in Seattle’s beatdown of the 49ers.
If you’d thrown 10 bucks on that, then your wallet would be $350 fatter today. If you got frisky and put $100 on the Walker prop, then that’s a $3,500 win.
One bettor had $32 on Walker having a banner day and cashed out for $1,120.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Major wagers landed throughout the weekend on NFL Divisional Round odds. In addition, the largest reported Super Bowl futures payout crashed out in the Rams-Bears game.
Back in November, just before Chicago beat Philadelphia on Black Friday, a BetMGM customer put $50,000 on Bears +6600 to win the Super Bowl.
The potential win, if the Bears ran the table: A whopping $3.3 million.
Alas, as noted above, Chicago fell 20-17 in overtime in the Divisional Round.
Other notable bets:
- $150,000 Patriots -3 (even) vs. Texans (DraftKings). New England won and covered 28-16, and the bettor doubled up in winning $150,000 (total payout $300,000).
- $120,000 Rams moneyline -198 vs. Bears (DraftKings). This high-roller got a huge sweat, as L.A. escaped Chicago with a 20-17 OT win. The bettor profited $60,606.06 (total payout $180,606.06).
- $100,000 49ers +3.5 first half vs. Seahawks (DraftKings). San Fran trailed 24-6 at halftime. So that’s a six-figure donation to the house.
- $80,000 Texans +3 vs. Patriots (DraftKings). Five turnovers doomed Houston — and this bettor — in a 28-16 loss.
- $30,000 Keon Coleman anytime touchdown +540 (Fanatics). That’s a lot of cash on an anytime TD prop. But the Bills wideout scored in the third quarter, and the bettor bagged $162,000 profit (total payout $192,000).
Just a reminder: High-rollers have the means to take such risks and absorb those seemingly obscene losses. So keep your wagers and your expectations reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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