Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
This will be our first group of props and bets for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIX on FOX, and I figured I would keep the theme.
No, I’m not doing this to be cute. I actually do like these plays.
And who doesn’t like instant gratification? Especially on the contrarian side!
Let’s dive in.
Patrick Mahomes first rush o4.5 yards: -120 (SuperBook)
After being burned by the Mahomes Over rushing yards prop in the Super Bowl vs. San Francisco a few years ago as a result of kneel-downs, I decided this is the best way to play Mahomes and his scrambling ability.
The Kansas City offensive line hasn’t been great lately, and with the strength of the Eagles being up front, pressure will likely result in Mahomes taking off and potentially picking up big yardage on the one type of play Vic Fangio and the Eagles defense can’t really scheme for.
If interested, Mahomes first run vs. Buffalo was for four yards and his first vs. Houston went for 15.
Saquon Barkley first rush u4.5 yards: -105 (Circa)
Barkley’s 60-yard TD run on the Eagles first play from scrimmage vs. Washington is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I think there will be a good bit of recency bias from those who bet this prop, and a majority of the bets will be on the Over.
Yes, he also had a 16 yard gain on his first carry against Green Bay, but I’d expect the Chiefs to load up against the run and force Jalen Hurts to beat them. Barkley has been boom or bust in the postseason, with a single carry or two accounting for a healthy chunk of his yardage total.
Here’s hoping he doesn’t go boom on carry No. 1. In Spags we trust.
A.J. Brown first reception u11.5 yards: -110 (Circa)
Devonta Smith first reception u9.5 yards: -110 (SuperBook)
If you examine the Eagles pass game vs. Washington, it was essentially throws outside the hashes and numbers all game. There was nothing downfield in the middle. That’s partly due to the success they had winning first down and could afford to give their talented WR group an opportunity to make guys miss on the outside, albeit against a poor Washington defense.
However, the Chiefs corners might be a bit tougher to expose and beat on an island.
I’ll back the K.C. defense here to not allow a long gain by either guy off the bat.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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