Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
After almost two weeks on the stovetop, Super Bowl LIX odds are coming to a full boil. With one day to go before the Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles showdown, action is mounting on the largest single-day betting event in the United States.
One thing is clear so far: We’re a nation divided on this game.
“What’s interesting is how balanced the action has been,” Circa Sports director of operations Jeffrey Benson said. “There are a lot of people backing the Chiefs because of the three-peat. They think Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT. And a lot of people are backing the Eagles, because they want to go against the Chiefs.”
Benson and professional bettor Randy McKay offer their insights on Chiefs vs. Eagles odds and Super Bowl LIX betting.
NFL Rocks On FOX
For the second time in three seasons, the Super Bowl is on FOX, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday.
Circa Sports opened the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites, stuck there for a week-plus, then on Monday nudged to Kansas City -1.
On Friday, the point spread dipped to pick ‘em for a few hours, then went to Chiefs -1 (-108), where it remains Saturday afternoon.
“There’s not a lot of separation between these two teams,” Benson said. “We’ve taken a few big bets on Kansas City moneyline and on Philadelphia plus the points.
“There’s still a day to go. And when your limits are $1 million on the spread and the moneyline, one or two bets can quickly flip your decision.”
Such a bet might’ve arrived late Friday afternoon.
Making Moves On Money
Circa Sports actively welcomes the sharpest of the sharp bettors, while also taking plenty of action from the public betting masses. Circa generally doesn’t reveal any of the major wagers it receives, and that remained the case Friday.
However, Circa’s betting splits — the percentage of bets made and money wagered on each team, and on the Over/Under — are accessible. And the move from Chiefs -1 to pick ‘em revealed a significant shift in the betting splits.
Shortly before the move, 57% of spread tickets and 70% of spread dollars were on the Chiefs. After the move, K.C. was still seeing 57% of spread tickets.
But the spread money percentage flipped from 70% Chiefs to 82% Eagles. A massive shift, to say the least.
Said Benson, in the most succinct way possible: “We took a bet.”
Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes: Who will lead their team to Super Bowl glory?
By late Friday night — with pick ‘em a more attractive number for Chiefs bettors — the Eagles’ money count receded to 69%, and K.C. returned to a 1-point favorite. As of Saturday afternoon, 69% of spread money was on Philly, while 56% of spread tickets were on Kansas City.
On the moneyline — wagering simply on which team wins the game, regardless of margin — 65% of tickets are on the Eagles, while 77% of money is on the Chiefs.
“We don’t know where this is gonna fall,” Benson said. “Right now, we’d probably be Eagles fans, when you factor in the bets we’ve written [on the game] and with the futures book.”
But as Benson noted above, one or two big bets could change that need in an instant.
NFL Sharp Side
More than a week ago, professional bettor Randy McKay wagered on one of the Super Bowl props: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 receiving yards.
As kickoff approaches, he’s now got a couple of plays tied into the total. McKay bet on Over 48.5 points for the full game and on first-half Over 24.5 (+105).
His reasoning is pretty simple.
“I feel like the game will be at a faster pace, with more plays. So I like the Over positions,” McKay said.
It’s Never Under Til It’s Over
No surprise, Circa Sports joins sportsbooks across the nation in rooting for the Under on Sunday’s total of 48.5. Not just because of wagering on the Over, although that’s a key component — particularly since the Over is in a lot of parlay bets.
But more so because of all the Super Bowl prop bets.
“Bettors like to play Yes and Over on the props. The public likes to bet on things to happen,” Benson said. “If the total goes Under, regardless of which team wins, that would be good for the house.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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