Yankees Wild Card strategy, Ben Rice, Aaron Boone, Boston Red Sox, MLB playoffs, Wild Card series, postseason decisions, Garrett Crochet, Paul Goldschmidt, lefty-righty matchup, Yankee offense, strikeout rate, fastball velocity, top American League sluggers, advanced baseball stats
The postseason has reached a critical juncture where every decision will define playoff advancement. In the MLB Wild Card series, there’s no room for error due to the tight margin for maneuvering, so Yankees manager Aaron Boone must make the right call by benching one of his top hitters for Game 1 against the Boston Red Sox.
Facing a pitcher they’ve struggled against all season, Boone may opt to leave Ben Rice on the bench.
A Decision That Could Impact the Yankees’ Offense
It’s no secret that Ben Rice has been a driving force in the Yankees offense in recent games, but facing Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet might keep him out of the lineup. According to Gary Phillips of The Daily News, Paul Goldschmidt is “likely” to start at first base.
Head-to-head stats show Rice hasn’t fared poorly against left-handed pitchers, hitting .208 with a .752 OPS over 119 plate appearances, including seven home runs, six doubles, and a triple. However, his numbers against Crochet are less encouraging, though the sample size is small: in nine plate appearances, Rice bats .125/.125/.250 with a single and a double.
One reason the Yankees might lean toward Goldschmidt is his overall performance against left-handers: in 169 plate appearances, he hits .336/.411/.570 with seven home runs and 14 doubles. However, this success doesn’t carry over against Crochet. In his career, Goldschmidt bats just .133/.188/.133 against Boston’s ace Garrett Crochet, with no home runs or doubles.
If Boone factored in Crochet’s high velocity in his decision, Rice and Goldschmidt show similar stats against fastballs. Crochet’s fastball averages 96 MPH, and Rice has faced 260 pitches at or above that speed, hitting .271 with an average exit velocity of 94.7 MPH, including two home runs and two doubles. Goldschmidt performs slightly worse, hitting .257 with an 89.7 MPH average exit velocity on 273 pitches at 96 MPH or higher, with two home runs and four doubles.
Unfortunately, the better player may be benched due to the lefty-righty matchup strategy. Rice has emerged as one of the American League’s top sluggers, batting .255/.337/.499 with 26 home runs and strong advanced baseball stats: .299 xBA, .581 xSLG, 56.1% hard-hit rate, and 15.4% barrel rate. Rice also provides tougher at-bats for pitchers, with an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk rate.
Against Crochet, who boasts a 31.3% strikeout rate, it could be argued that while Goldschmidt looks like the better matchup on paper, Ben Rice gives the Yankees the best chance to disrupt one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers in the MLB postseason.
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