Scottie Scheffler has spent most of 2026 playing golf at a level few can approach, yet the world No.1 arrives in Minnesota with an unusual source of motivation as he hasn’t won since January.
That combination of relentless consistency and a relatively long wait for another trophy has made Scheffler an overwhelming favorite for the 3M Open. Following his tied fourth-place finish at the Open Championship, bookmakers have priced him at approximately +265 to +275 to win at TPC Twin Cities.
Those odds suggest Scheffler has a better chance of winning than several of his closest challengers combined. Kurt Kitayama, the defending champion, is the second favorite at around +2200, illustrating the enormous gap between the market leader and everyone else.
The leading outright prices entering tournament week include:
- Scottie Scheffler: +270
- Kurt Kitayama: +2200
- Maverick McNealy: +2700
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2800
Odds will continue to move between sportsbooks before Thursday’s opening round.
Why Scheffler is so difficult to oppose
TPC Twin Cities appears well suited to Scheffler’s complete game. The par-71 course stretches beyond 7,400 yards and places water in play on 15 holes, rewarding players who combine distance with control from the tee.
Its fairways are relatively generous and the rough is not especially punishing, but inaccurate drives can quickly produce penalty strokes. Large Bentgrass greens also make approach play and converting birdie opportunities essential.
Scheffler excels in nearly every relevant category. He has recorded 10 top-five finishes this season and remains the strongest driver and iron player in the field. He’s also the only golfer ranked inside the world’s top 25 competing this week.
The concern isn’t his form but his price. Even the best golfer in the world must avoid four days of water hazards, poor putting stretches and the natural unpredictability of a 144-player event.
Best value picks behind the favorite
Kitayama is the most credible alternative. He won at 23 under par last year after shooting a third-round 60 and also finished tied sixth in 2024. His current run of 11 consecutive made cuts and four top-10 results suggests his title defense deserves serious consideration.
Sungjae Im offers greater value at around +4600 to +5100. He finished runner-up at this course in 2022 and remains particularly effective with short approaches and around the greens.
Jackson Suber is the more aggressive selection. His recent Open Championship challenge demonstrated that he can contend under pressure, while his driving and birdie production fit the demands of TPC Twin Cities.
Emiliano Grillo is another appealing outsider after recording finishes of second, third and 10th in Minnesota. His course history is difficult to ignore at odds near 70-1.
Scheffler is unquestionably the likeliest winner, but Kitayama provides the strongest outright alternative. Im represents the best balance between form, price and course fit, while Grillo is the long-shot selection.
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