Over the last 10 days, I’ve seen at least 900 different ways to bet Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.
Literally, 900 ways.
Legalization provides opportunities for sportsbooks to get creative and, boy, have they figured out a way to entice people from all walks of life.
I wrote about the prop phenomenon years ago.
Here are my five favorite bets for Sunday.
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First quarter Over/Under 8.5 points
This wager is nothing new to loyal readers. I love shorting offense and banking on defense early in Super Bowls. Hell, Tom Brady never engineered a first-quarter touchdown drive in nine Super Bowls with the Patriots. Nerves should certainly be a thing for both Sam Darnold and Drake Maye, and I’ll be rooting for 0-0, 3-0, 3-3, 6-0, 7-0 or 8-0. Anything 9 or higher is a loss.
PICK: First quarter Under 8.5 points scored (-115)
Longest field goal Under 49.5 yards
Sure, both kickers are weapons, but these coaching staffs are rather aggressive on fourth-and-3 or shorter. That’s because Mike Macdonald and Mike Vrabel trust their defenses coming back the other way. Don’t be surprised when one of these teams passes up a 50-yarder to leave the offense on the field. If somebody drills a long one heading into the half, so be it.
PICK: Longest field goal Under 49.5 yards (-110)
Drake Maye Under 37.5 rushing yards
Does anybody like the Under here? The first number I saw, this prop was 28.5, and now we’re almost 10 yards higher. Alrighty then. It’s easy to peep playoff box scores and see Maye’s 66 yards against Los Angeles and 65 against Denver. However, you can’t ignore the 10 rushing yards versus Houston. I expect Seattle’s stingy defense to account for Maye and limit his breakouts.
PICK: Drake Maye Under 37.5 rushing yards (-105)
Mack Hollins Under 2.5 catches
Wise guys popped this in Vegas at -110 and -130, but I still think it’s good to about -160. Anything higher, it’s a pass. Caesars is out to -200. Woof. Hollins was a popular target for Maye during the regular season until he suffered an abdomen injury in Week 16 at Baltimore. He was activated for the AFC Championship and caught two passes against the big, bad Denver defense. His life doesn’t get any easier against a loaded Seattle secondary.
PICK: Mack Hollins Under 2.5 catches (-155)
Rashid Shaheed MVP
Now we’re gambling. I made this full-unit bet expecting to lose, though it’s easy for me to make a case for Seattle’s Swiss army knife. Shaheed is a speedster that’s no stranger to home-run plays. We saw him blow by defenders and score an 87-yard touchdown pass earlier this season. He also returns kicks and punts, so he’ll touch the ball in high-leverage situations. And who knows, maybe Klint Kubiak will use Shaheed in the running game. FanDuel is offering 45-1 — the best price by far — and I think it’s well worth a bet.
PICK: Rashid Shaheed (+4500) to win Super Bowl MVP
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