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2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections: Duke Jumps to No. 1 Seed, Texas Tech Rises

News RoomBy News RoomJanuary 20, 2026No Comments2 Mins Read
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There’s a new king in the South Region. 

Duke has surged to a No. 1 seed in Mike DeCourcy’s updated bracket projections, headlining a top line that now features UConn, Nebraska and Arizona. The Wildcats and Cornhuskers stand alone as the last undefeated teams from power conferences.

Behind the top line, the chase is just as compelling. Michigan, Iowa State, Houston and Purdue currently anchor the No. 2 seed line. Kelvin Sampson’s Houston team is set to host Texas Tech – a 3-seed in DeCourcy’s latest bracket projections – in a Big 12 showdown on Saturday afternoon.

With a loaded week on deck, DeCourcy is here to share his latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament projections.

Here’s where his projected bracket stands on Jan. 20.

EAST REGION

SOUTH REGION

MIDWEST REGION

WEST REGION

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy’s projections, Auburn, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Stanford are the last four teams in the tournament, while Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Cal and North Carolina State are the first four out.

As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams in DeCourcy’s latest tournament projections, followed by the Big Ten with nine teams, the ACC and Big 12 with eight teams and the Big East with four teams. The West Coast, Atlantic 10 and Mountain West conferences have two teams each.

Selection Sunday is less than two months away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. But for now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling, and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.

Michael DeCourcy covers college basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on NCAA Tournament bracket projections. He has appeared on FOX Sports college basketball game broadcasts, while also serving as a college basketball studio analyst with Big Ten Network. He has been covering college basketball for nearly three decades at the Sporting News. You can follow him at @tsnmike.

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