For the first time in 11 years, the Chiefs will miss the postseason. Don’t know that I could have imagined saying that back in August, but here we are.
And because of how beat up they are, I think it’s a good time to fade them.
I also think it’s a good time to turn your attention to a pivotal battle going down in the NFC West.
Here’s where I’m putting my money in NFL Week 16.
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Rams @ Seahawks
This will be a monster matchup in the NFC West, and it has major implications for the overall NFC playoff picture.
The Rams and Seahawks are both 11-3 heading into Thursday night, with the Rams having already beaten the Seahawks 21-19 earlier this season. I see this game being a low-scoring contest for multiple reasons, starting with a costly injury for Los Angeles.
The Rams lost receiver Davante Adams to a leg injury for presumably the rest of the regular season. Adams has developed into a trustworthy weapon for quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has 60 receptions with 14 touchdowns in his first season with L.A.
Without him in the lineup, the Rams’ offense is bound to suffer a bit. To what degree? We will find out Thursday.
Los Angeles will rely on rushing the football and using its 13 personnel packages to be the offense. The Rams can have a successful offense without Adams, but it’s just going to be tougher when facing an outstanding Seattle defense.
Seattle’s defense ranks first in overall DVOA. The Seahawks are a group that plays disciplined football, with the ability to rush the passer and disrupt the opposing quarterback.
Here’s something else: Seattle’s offense is eighth in DVOA, but the Seahawks have been less impressive when playing better teams in the NFL because they can’t rush the football. They are 23rd in rushing DVOA and 28th in rushing yards per attempt. This is why they’ve struggled against better defenses. You cannot be one-dimensional and rely on Sam Darnold to be the offense.
I also have no faith in Darnold in big games. He’s played in three of them this season. He’s 0-3 in those contests and has not looked crisp.
Now, it’s a national TV game for the No. 1 seed and the offense will rely on Darnold to move the ball. I don’t like it.
Instead, what I do like, is the Under for this game.
PICK: Under 44.5 points scored by both teams combined
Chiefs @ Titans
For the third straight week, I’m going to write the same thing: The Chiefs are not winning a football game.
Yes, the Titans stink, but what are the Chiefs right now? They lost Patrick Mahomes for the season. They are down their first, second and third offensive tackles. They are without receivers. They have no running game.
On defense, Chris Jones played through a leg injury, but he’s doubtful to be healthy this week. The Chiefs are also without their best cornerback, plus they had more injuries on defense from the Chargers game.
And for the first time since 2014, the Chiefs are out of the postseason.
In summation, the motivation level for this game will be zero.
Even if they are highly motivated for this game, the Chiefs can’t move the ball without a healthy offense. Now, Gardner Minshew is starting for Kansas City. The Chiefs’ offense does nothing easy. They don’t generate anything easy. There’s no rushing game. No explosive passing game. It’s not going to start now.
Now let’s look at Tennessee.
The Titans are not good. We know that. But they are feisty and do play till the final whistle. That’s going to matter in this game.
Even though the Chiefs are out of the postseason, they are still the Chiefs. They are viewed in the highest regard and the Titans will want to win this game.
I like Tennessee to cover this game and win outright.
PICK: Titans (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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