Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
With the 2025 NFL season just around the corner, it’s time to assess how successful — or how unsuccessful — teams will be this upcoming season.
There are two teams whose win totals stood out to me in particular: the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Giants.
And based on what we know about these teams from last year and their offseason moves, I’m ready to throw down some cash on these Niners and Giants.
Let’s take a look at what I think their regular-season win totals will be.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Under 10.5 wins
The 49ers’ schedule, along with some positive injury regression, has Kyle Shanahan’s squad trying for the 1-seed this season. The 49ers won six games last year, despite a roster filled with injuries. Star running back Christian McCaffrey played in just four games. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk appeared in just seven games. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams played only 10 games.
On defense, safety Talanoa Hufanga also played in just seven games, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave made it onto the field for only three games. The list goes on and on.
The 49ers were unfortunate with their injury luck last season. Injury luck is one of those things that we see regression to the mean the following season. If a team is beat up one season, they often come back healthy the following year. The 49ers’ roster is top-heavy, but when healthy, it’s hard not to marvel at the talent.
They have a top-tier running back, left tackle, wide receivers, pass rush, middle linebacker and a good cornerback. The Niners boast more playmakers than most of their opponents, which is a critical factor in predicting win totals. Add in quarterback Brock Purdy, who is solid, predictable and efficient in the Niners’ well-above-average offense.
The 49ers’ schedule this season sets them up for success. They will play their six divisional games and will likely be favored in at least four, maybe five, especially when they host the Rams. The 49ers — and the rest of the NFC West — must play both South divisions in their rotational schedule. Those divisions are the worst on paper in the NFL. Their game at Houston is one of the few matchups where they might be underdogs this season.
Since the 49ers finished in last place in the division last year, they round out their schedule with three games against teams that also finished in last place in 2024. This includes the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Chicago Bears. The 49ers should end up being favored in 15 of their 17 games.
The combination of San Fran’s talent, some injury regression to the mean and its favorable schedule means that squad should win at least 11 games this season.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 wins
Will Brock Purdy lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl this year?
New York Giants Over/Under 5.5 wins
The New York Giants have three ingredients that I often view as reasons why teams go Over their win total. The first, as mentioned above, is injury regression to the mean.
The second is the result of one-score games. The Giants were 1-8 in those games last season, and the following season that tends to reverse. It’s unlikely a team is 8-1 in one-score games, but they shift from 1-8 to somewhere around 4-5 or 5-4. That’s a huge difference in the overall result of a season.
The third factor is a quarterback upgrade. I’m not high on Russell Wilson in general, but he is still better than the Giants’ quarterback situation from last season.
So, the Giants meet most of the criteria I’d use for picking a team to go Over their win total.
However, they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, and I’m unsure they’ll come out of October with more than a single win. In fact, they’d be fortunate to be favored in more than one game this season.
Here’s the first two months of their season: They open at Washington and Dallas, then host the Chiefs and Chargers. After that, a trip to New Orleans, followed by two games against the Eagles, with the Broncos sandwiched in between. They start November with the 49ers, then face the Bears, Packers and Lions — oh my! They’ll be an underdog in every game, and possibly a pick in New Orleans.
So that poor record in close games may not even matter this season, as they could find themselves down by double digits late in games. When they start slow, the coaching staff may quickly turn to Jaxson Dart, who isn’t ready to be a starter yet. New York’s season is going to spiral out of control quickly. So I’m going with the Giants Under 5.5 wins.
PICK: New York Giants Under 5.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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