Henry McKenna
NFL Reporter
The NFL schedule release means only one thing: It’s time to start thinking about the end game.
I’m only half kidding. Yes, we just got our first look at the 2025 regular-season slate. But I’m thinking about where it all leads — the postseason and the Super Bowl. It’s sort of like when you simulated the entire season on Madden to see who wins it all. That’s what I wanted to look at here.
So how does the 2025 NFL season end?
I’ve thought about what the playoff standings will look like. And I’ve projected each round — including the scores (because no detail is too precise) — all the way into the Super Bowl.
Let’s do this.
Playoff standings
AFC standings
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Denver Broncos
- Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Cincinnati Bengals
Of course, my Colts pick is likely to addle a few brains. The Houston Texans didn’t look like a strong team on film last year — but they coasted into the postseason due to weak division. Indy got better this offseason. Houston didn’t. And whether it’s Daniel Jones or an improved Anthony Richardson at QB, the Colts should win more games — and they were already 8-9 last season.
Elsewhere in the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers will either 1) have no quarterback or 2) have Aaron Rodgers, which might be worse than having no quarterback.
I badly wanted to get the Las Vegas Raiders into the mix, but I think the Bengals’ offensive talent will carry them into that last spot, because for once Cincinnati will win its first two games of the season (@ CLE, vs. JAC).
Some people like the Patriots to make the playoffs after a busy offseason. But on the flipside, New England has an enormous amount of turnover around Drake Maye, an ascending-but-still-unproven quarterback. The Patriots’ offseason looks a lot like most Jaguars’ offseasons: new coach, huge free-agent class, strong draft grades. For that reason, I’m hesitant to predict a playoff berth. Let’s see how New England’s new pieces fit together first.
NFC standings
- Washington Commanders
- Los Angeles Rams
- Detroit Lions
- Carolina Panthers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Minnesota Vikings
- Dallas Cowboys
This conference is more complicated.
Where are the Packers, for example? The AFC North is going to be brutal. It will be the strongest division in the NFL, and I suspect that means the four teams will eat each other’s lunch. Only two of the teams will make the postseason this year. I like what the Chicago Bears did for their offensive line, but we’ve seen rebuilds like this flop and/or falter. (Look at the Jets over the past few years.) I don’t like what the Packers have done this offseason, and I’m worried that Jordan Love’s contract — which is officially eating into the supporting cast the Packers can afford — will impact the team’s performance. He’s just not consistent enough yet as a game manager to overcome this weakening roster.
Yes, I have the Panthers in the fourth spot after taking home the NFC South title. Few were paying attention at the end of last year, but Bryce Young put together an eight-game run that completely changed my perspective on him — and coach Dave Canales. There could be something special brewing in Carolina. It won’t take much to win the NFC South. It might simply take an aligned coach and a QB. But on top of that, the Panthers will also have a slew of offseason additions, from WR Tetairoa McMillan to DT Tershawn Wharton to safety Tre’von Moehrig. Carolina is tied for the fifth-easiest strength of schedule, according to last year’s records. Things are lining up.
And Dallas. Where did the Cowboys come from? They actually have the fifth-hardest strength of schedule. But if you look at their depth chart from top to bottom, they are absurdly talented. In 2024, they finished 7-10, even though Dak Prescott played just eight games — and in a division that put two teams in the NFC Championship. Dallas has looked foolish in headlines this offseason, but this team is way more dangerous than we think.
Wild-card round
Bye: Ravens, Commanders
AFC matchups:
Bills over Bengals, 29-28
Broncos over Chiefs, 13-10
Chargers over Colts, 21-7
NFC matchups
Rams over Cowboys, 24-17
Vikings over Lions, 28-10
Eagles over Panthers, 31-17
There are two organizations that — to me — look exhausted: Kansas City and Detroit.
The Chiefs just put their heart and soul into the three-peat and failed brutally on the biggest stage. And while I think there’s a big-brother complex where Andy Reid lords over both Sean McDermott and John Harbaugh, I don’t think that’s true of Sean Payton, who will bump a fatigued Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce out of the offseason.
For the Lions, they just seem to be on a downward trend. Their two 2024 coordinators are now head coaches (Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn). It seems as if they’ll never fix their secondary issues. And now, without Johnson, I wonder if the super-powered offense might experience some vulnerability, particularly as teams league-wide bulk up to stop the trendy, run-heavy offenses.
Divisional round
AFC matchups:
Ravens over Chargers, 31-17
Bills over Broncos, 17-14
NFC matchups:
Commanders over Vikings, 28-17
Rams over Eagles, 24-20
The matchup between the Ravens and Chargers would be a fascinating one. It would be another Harbaugh Bowl. But more important (at least to me) would be how this game influences the legacies of Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert — both of whom face constant criticism for their lack of success in the postseason. It seems Herbert will have to endure more of the treatment that Lamar got. And Jackson will continue to graduate from it.
J.J. McCarthy’s season might look like a poor man’s version of what Jayden Daniels did last year. McCarthy will be coming back from an ACL injury, which can slow a player down in the early days. But Minnesota has the supporting cast to lift its young QB. By the postseason, I think this offense will be humming. But … not at the level of the Commanders, whose offseason additions will help prevent a sophomore slump for Daniels. He’ll rerurn to the NFC Championship Game.
Championship round
AFC Championship: Bills over Ravens, 42-35
NFC Championship: Rams over Commanders, 33-21
I’ve got a crazy thought here. What if both Josh Allen and Sean McVay are underrated?
Yes, I know Allen just won MVP. But I’m not sure everyone has wrapped their heads around just how much he’s done to carry the Bills out of irrelevance and into six consecutive divisional titles. And what he did, in particular, to lift Buffalo’s offense last year. His inability to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs has dampened his legacy. But when you simply look at Allen on a game-to-game level, you could easily argue he’s the most complete quarterback in the game.
Which is why he’s headed to the Super Bowl. The Bills win the AFC Championship in a rematch of their season-opener against the Ravens.
In the NFC, it’s a similar story with McVay, who has carried his team through some rough patches since he and Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl. L.A. needed to rebuild — or at least renovate — its roster. There has been plenty of turnover from the stars who helped the Rams win last time. Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Ramsey and Bobby Wagner are all gone. This seems like the year when that construction project comes to an end. And in the NFC Championship, everything looks as picturesque on L.A.’s roster as McVay could imagine.
Super Bowl
Bills over Rams, 27-26
There was a fourth-down play that decided the Bills’ loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. You probably know the one. It was BUffalo’s final offensive drive. Allen didn’t appear to recognize a disguised blitz off the right side. The blitzers hurried the pass and Allen couldn’t complete the throw to tight end Dalton Kincaid. (Or, perhaps, Kincaid dropped the pass.) The incompletion cost Buffalo the game.
How badly is that play seared in Allen’s mind? How much will it motivate him?
My sense is that it’s a reminder of how perfect he’ll have to be to make it not just to a Super Bowl but through one — and with a win. Because a quarterback’s preparation has to be so intense and immense that he can see that blitz coming and make the proper adjustment. On every play, including and especially on third and fourth downs in the fourth quarter.
Rather than further cementing McVay and Stafford’s legacies, this season will give Allen the platform to transform himself. There’s no denying that he will be regarded as one of the most talented quarterbacks of his generation. But this Super Bowl could open conversations about his greatness.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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