2025 NFL Odds: Bears' Success Relies on Williams-Johnson Connection

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2024 NFL season did not go as planned for the Bears.

Chicago spent the No. 1 pick on USC quarterback Caleb Williams and expected to see the franchise transform into a winner immediately.

Not only did it not achieve that goal, the coaching staff was fired and the roster underwent major changes after the season.

Will these changes pay dividends in 2025?

The Bears hired Ben Johnson away from the Lions to be the head coach but, more importantly, to be the mentor and “fixer” for Williams. The Bears traded for two offensive guards, including the Chiefs’ Joe Thuney, who is a fixture as one of the league’s best left guards. They also added a center to round out the offensive line.

Chicago is young at tackle, but experienced and skilled inside. The Bears drafted Rome Odunze along with Williams last season and then nabbed tight end Colston Loveland in the 2025 draft.

Alongside running back D’Andre Swift and other receiving options, the Bears are plenty talented on offense to make it work around Williams.

Defensively, Chicago has been building for years. It grabbed Montez Sweat via trade, Grady Jerrett and Tremaine Edmunds in free agency, and secondary players like Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon via the draft.

Last year, the defense was second in passer rating allowed, fifth in third-down conversation percentage, and it’s worth noting things got worse as the season went on. That is partly due to the usual wear and tear, but also the lack of support from the offense. When an offense doesn’t score regularly, it puts the defense at a disadvantage, both emotionally and physically.

With that said, it’s clear that the success of the 2025 Bears is squarely on the shoulders of Williams and Johnson.

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Johnson was able to engineer an explosive and attacking offense in Detroit with Jared Goff and Williams is a more talented thrower. While the Lions overall offense is better, the Bears are not that far behind. They built up the offensive line and have enough skill guys to win.

But the question lingers: Can Johnson get the most out of Williams?

I, like most, was high on Williams out of USC. The arm talent and physical gifts combined to make an explosive weapon that won the Heisman in 2022. However, he has a tendency to hold the ball too long while working through progressions, and he took too many sacks as a rookie.

I was hopeful Williams was “trying to do too much” at USC with its poor defense and offense that seemed disjointed. However, Williams showed the same traits during his first season in the NFL.

I think it’s unfair to expect him to immediately morph into a different player with Johnson as his coach, and Williams gradually improving throughout the season is a typical arc of a young quarterback learning how to play the game. Also, it takes 8-10 game weeks for a new offensive playcaller — even with a veteran quarterback — to get the offense playing with high efficiency.

Add in trying to change the way Williams sees the field, and I believe the Bears will start slower on offense than they’d like.

If you combine a slower offensive start with the firepower in the NFC North, and games against the NFC East and AFC North, I think the Bears are going Under their win total. They should improve throughout the season and, hopefully, by the end of 2025 they are heading in the right direction for 2026.

PICK: Bears Under 8.5 wins

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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