2025 NFL odds: Back Aaron Rodgers, Steelers to lose in wild-card round

Will Hill

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Pittsburgh Steelers finally turned rumor into reality last week, signing future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a one-year contract.

Rodgers joins the third team of his illustrious career, leaving behind a disappointing and forgettable two-year Jets tenure. The most memorable moment during that stint? The season-ending injury he suffered on his first series with the team in September 2023.

In 2024, the Jets had a healthy Rodgers but couldn’t come close to living up to lofty expectations, as they finished 5-12. Despite the disastrous team results a year ago, Rodgers put up a respectable 28 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions.

For the second straight year, the Steelers will try to milk the last drop of quality football from a once-elite quarterback. Last year, they took a shot on Russell Wilson and had mixed results.

Will this year be any different?

Expectations for Aaron Rodgers with the Steelers?

Well, we know one thing: Mike Tomlin is likely to put a respectable product on the field.

Since taking over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers have never done worse than 8-8. The 6-10 mark the Steelers had in 2003 was their last losing season, back when their quarterback was Tommy Maddox.

But as consistent as the Steelers have been under Tomlin, it’s also been nearly a decade since they’ve won a playoff game. The franchise has been stuck in a cycle of being not quite good enough to be a legitimate contender but not bad enough to get a high draft pick and select a franchise quarterback.

Does anything change this year? Perhaps.

Maybe Rodgers has enough upside (and downside) to break the trend of respectability/mediocrity and either win this team a playoff game or produce a season similar to the one with the Jets last year that leads to a top-10 pick.

But how will it ultimately play out? And what’s the bet?

The Pittsburgh Steelers to lose in the wild-card round is +330 (a $10 bet pays $43 total). The Steelers have the defense and infrastructure to always be a playoff-caliber squad. Aaron Rodgers — as disappointing as last year was — still put up stats that can translate to team success if put in the right situation.

The Steelers should, once again, be firmly in the mix for a playoff spot.

Aaron Rodgers wasn’t Steelers’ first choice, per Adam Schefter

Unfortunately for them, it’s likely once again a wild-card spot, considering the Ravens are a cut above the Steelers in the AFC North. A wild-card spot means a road playoff game to start the postseason and likely a date with one of the many premier quarterbacks in the AFC.

Think Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or maybe even Joe Burrow.

In four of the last five years, the Steelers have lost in the wild-card round. They’ve lost to Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson over that stretch, as well as Baker Mayfield.

Pittsburgh is the model of consistency but has lost its last six playoff games and has not won a playoff game since the 2016 season. Rodgers is an all-time great player, but at this stage of his career, it is not enough to break this cycle of losing early in the postseason.

PICK: Steelers (+330) to lose in wild-card round

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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