After finally breaking through and winning his first NFL MVP in a hotly contested competition last season, Josh Allen can make MVP history in 2025.
The Buffalo Bills quarterback is seeking to become the sixth player to ever win MVP in back-to-back seasons in NFL history. That group currently consists of Hall of Famers (Jim Brown, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning) and a player who’ll almost certainly be enshrined in Canton someday (Aaron Rodgers), with Rodgers being the last player to win MVP in back-to-back years (2020, 2021).
Allen narrowly denied Baltimore Ravens quarterback and 2023 MVP winner Lamar Jackson from joining that prestigious group last season, winning in the closest vote since 2016 despite having an inferior year statistically. Allen received 27 first-place votes to Jackson’s 23, helping him edge the Ravens quarterback by 21 points (383-362).
Of course, Allen is saying all the right things, telling reporters his focus remains on bringing Buffalo its first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history, and not repeating as league MVP.
“There are still things when I look and I’m like, ‘What was I thinking here?’” Allen told reporters when asked about ways to improve this season. “Why am I looking left when I know I should be looking right? There’s a lot of freebies that could have been that we didn’t take advantage of. And hopefully we can this year.”
NFL observers will get an up-close view of the Allen vs. Jackson rivalry in Week 1, when the Bills host the Ravens in a nationally televised game on Sunday Night Football. It marks the fifth time ever that the two most recent MVPs will meet in Week 1, possibly putting the winning quarterback in pole position to win MVP early in the season.
After their close MVP battle last season, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will go head-to-head in Week 1. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas, who predicted Allen would win two Super Bowls, expects a heated contest after the Bills narrowly defeated Baltimore in Buffalo during the AFC divisional round last season.
“They’re going to be pissed off about what happened here in the playoffs last year, and they’re going to treat it as a playoff game,” Thurman told me. “And I hope the Bills are ready for that because Baltimore is one of those teams that are going to push you to the limit. … That’s the way they’re going to play all day long for 60 minutes. It’s going to be chippy. It’s going to be tough, and I hope the Buffalo Bills are ready for that. And I think they will be.”
Despite winning the award last season, the reigning MVP is not the favorite to repeat. Jackson enters this season as the favorite (+550), with Allen and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow tied for second (+600), via DraftKings Sportsbook. While he’s not the favorite to win the award for the league’s best player, Allen is the top quarterback against the spread, worth almost a touchdown at 6.98 points, according to Yahoo! Sports.
I argued for Allen winning the award last season, and he sits atop my list of top five MVP candidates heading into Week 1.
The Bills are favored in all 17 games to start the regular season and face only six playoff teams from 2024, so the schedule sets up well for Allen to put up some big numbers again this year.
With 76 wins through seven NFL seasons, Allen can become the sixth starting quarterback ever with at least 80 regular-season wins in his first eight career seasons, joining Mahomes (89 wins), Tom Brady (86), Russell Wilson (86), Peyton Manning (80) and Ben Roethlisberger (80).
Allen also needs 11 rushing touchdowns to surpass Cam Newton (75 rushing touchdowns) for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in league history. Allen has 65 career rushing touchdowns entering the start of the year.
Odds to win MVP: +600
Patrick Mahomes didn’t have one of his best years statistically in 2024, but he still led the Kansas City Chiefs to a league-best 15-2 record and third straight Super Bowl appearance.
Mahomes could be on a revenge tour this season after an embarrassing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs appear to have solved their offensive line issues by drafting Ohio State product Josh Simmons in the first round to serve as the blindside protector for Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes arguably had his worst individual season in 2024. Can he rebound and win MVP in 2025? (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Kansas City will also have to weather a six-game suspension for No. 1 receiver Rashee Rice to start the year, but that’s nothing that Mahomes hasn’t done before. Consider that Mahomes has more career playoff wins (17) than Allen, Jackson, Burrow and Justin Herbert combined (15) and the elite quarterbacks have some catching up to do. Mahomes is also 19-4 (.826 winning percentage) in the month of September, which could allow him to get an early edge in the MVP race. Only Hall of Famer Roger Staubach (22-4, .846) has a higher winning percentage in the Super Bowl era.
This season, Mahomes can join Peyton Manning (41,082 passing yards) as the only players in NFL history with at least 40,000 passing yards in their first nine seasons, including the postseason. Mahomes has 38,166 passing yards, including the playoffs, entering 2025.
Odds to win MVP: +700
Burrow was one of the best quarterbacks statistically in the league last season. He led the NFL in completions (460), passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43) in 2024. Since 2021, Burrow is tops in the league with a 69.2% completion percentage and has averaged 276.5 passing yards per game.
However, can Burrow turn those gaudy passing numbers into wins early in the year? Burrow has a 1-9 record as a starter through the first two weeks of the season in his NFL career, the second-worst mark by any quarterback in Week 1 and Week 2 since 1950.
Burrow also needs 999 passing yards in his first six games to become the fifth player ever with at least 20,000 passing yards in his first 75 career games, joining Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino and Matthew Stafford. Burrow has 19,001 passing yards in 69 career games.
Odds to win MVP: +600
Statistically, Jackson had a career year in 2024. He led the NFL with a 119.6 passer rating (fourth-highest in NFL history) and also set career highs in pass yards (4,172) and passing touchdowns (41), becoming the player in NFL history with at least 40 passing touchdowns and fewer than five interceptions (Jackson had four interceptions).
Jackson needs 500 rushing yards to surpass Cam Newton (seven) for the most such seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. However, Allen is 3-2 against Jackson as starters head-to-head, including the playoffs. Allen and Patrick Mahomes (five) are the only quarterbacks with at least three wins against Jackson in his career.
Odds to win MVP: +550
Saquon Barkley rushed for a franchise-record 2,005 yards last season, becoming the ninth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards. So, what will the electric runner do for an encore?
Well, six of the eight previous 2,000-yard rushers failed to rush for over 100 yards in their first game of the following season (only Eric Dickerson & Chris Johnson did so). Further, the most rushing yards by a player the year following a 2,000-yard season is 1,491 by Barry Sanders in 1998 (2,053 rushing yards in the 1997 season).
Saquon Barkley had a historic first season with the Eagles, but history says he has a tough road ahead if he wants to repeat his 2024 performance. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Barkley had 482 touches in 2024, including the postseason. It seems like an uphill climb to post those kinds of numbers for a second straight year. But if he’s up for the challenge, Barkley can become the fifth player in NFL history with at least 2,000 scrimmage yards in three seasons prior to his 30th birthday, joining Eric Dickerson (four seasons), Marshall Faulk (four), Edgerrin James (three) and LaDainian Tomlinson (three).
Barkley has two career 2,000-yard seasons and is 28 years old.
Odds to win MVP: +6000
Honorable mention: Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry.
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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