2025 NFL Midweek Betting Report: ‘Action is Pouring in Like a Playoff Weekend’

NFL Week 1 odds have been percolating for months, since mid-May at most sportsbooks. 

Now, finally, the days of reckoning are here.

And the public betting masses couldn’t be more excited, along with the bookmakers.

“Week 1 is finally here, and bettors are more than ready for kickoff. The action is pouring in like it’s a playoff weekend,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “All eyes are on Sunday night, where Ravens-Bills feels less like an opener and more like an early statement game, as the top two AFC teams face off in what could be the AFC championship preview.”

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that marquee matchup and several other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 1 betting nuggets.

Sunday Night Showdown

Yes, the Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles clash kicks off the week on Thursday night. And we’ll get to that.

But Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills is the biggest game of the bunch on the NFL Week 1 oddsboard. 

Caesars Sports opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point home favorite, and the Bills toggled between -1.5/-1 all summer.

However, as game day approaches, the sharp bettors are particularly intrigued by the road team, and the point spread is down to a pick ‘em.

“These two teams are power-rated very similarly,” Feazel said on Wednesday afternoon. “We’ve seen the line move toward the Ravens, and we actually took some sharp action Tuesday on the Ravens at pick. The sharp side is the Ravens.”

However, the popular side over the next few days will likely be Josh Allen & Co. at home in prime-time on Sunday night.

“We’ll see a lot of Bills money throughout the rest of the week,” Feazel said.

First To Market

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia gets to raise the banner on Thursday night, before taking on NFC East rival Dallas to kick off the 2025-26 season.

Caesars opened Philadelphia at -7 (-105) way back on May 14, and the line stuck at various iterations of -7 most of the summer, save for a stint at -6.5 from Aug. 20-25.

Then, last Thursday, the Cowboys traded star edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. The market responded in kind, with Philly advancing to -7.5/-8 and even briefly to -8.5 on Tuesday. 

The Eagles are now 8-point favorites, and early bettors are all over the home team.

What impact will new Packer Micah Parsons have in Green Bay?

“So far, it’s been kind of a one-way street of action. We saw some Cowboys action early. But ever since the Parsons trade, it’s one-way movement and action toward your world champion Eagles,” Feazel said.

Still, there’s a not-insignificant population of Cowboys fans/bettors who will make things interesting for Feazel and the Caesars risk room.

“Week in and week out, the Cowboys are gonna drive a lot of action. And we’re seeing that on the moneyline,” Feazel said of customers playing Dallas +330 to pull an outright upset. “We’re gonna need that favorite to win and not cover scenario.”

Public bettors are also on the Over and will almost assuredly remain so heading up to the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

“It’s the first game of the season. People get excited, and they want to see points,” Feazel said.

NFL Rocks On FOX

Jayden Daniels was all the rage while winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season. So even though the Washington Commanders’ season opener is against what’s been a dismal New York Giants outfit, this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff will attract plenty of action.

By the time FOX goes live from Northwest Stadium, the betting masses will be on Daniels & Co. 

However, midweek, this line is moving toward the underdog at Caesars.

Washington opened -7 (-115) months ago and was at -6.5 from late July to mid-August. On Aug. 19, the Commanders dipped to -6, which is where the line remained on Wednesday.

“There was sharp action on the Giants +7,” Feazel said, before addressing overall wagering on this NFC East clash. “Early action is similar to Cowboys-Eagles. We’re likely gonna need the Commanders to win and not cover.”

Jayden Daniels & Co. will aim to replicate their success from 2024 this season.

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay will likely be on a few games in the NFL Week 1 odds market. But he’s mostly focused on Friday night’s clash between the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers.

It’s a neutral-site game. In fact, very neutral, with an 8 p.m. ET kickoff in São Paulo, Brazil.

The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites and are now -3 at most sportsbooks. But McKay is more focused on the total.

“I just bet Under 46.5,” McKay said. “These two teams played to under 40 points in both games last year. Has enough changed to get this total Over?”

Kansas City was 2-0 against Los Angeles last season, by scores of 17-10 on the road in Week 4 and 19-17 at home in Week 14.

McKay noted that field conditions at Corinthian Stadium were poor for last year’s Packers-Eagles Week 1 game. That’s contributing to his mindset on the Under, as are a couple other factors.

“Without left tackle Rashawn Slater for L.A., and with K.C. going more run-oriented, this looks like a great bet,” McKay said.

Slater tore a patellar tendon during preseason practice and is out for the season. At left tackle, he was the key to protecting Chargers QB Justin Herbert’s blind side.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will face the Chargers in Brazil in Week 1.

Flip The Script

Months ago, Caesars Sports opened the Detroit Lions as 1.5-point road favorites vs. the Green Bay Packers. But the point spread quickly flipped to Packers -1, and Green Bay reached -2.5 multiple times over the past four weeks.

The latest moves came off last week’s huge trade that saw the Pack acquire Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys. Caesars went from Packers -1.5 to -2/-2.5.

“The script has kind of flipped. The Parsons trade signifies that the Packers are going all in this year,” Feazel said.

Still, it’s hard to overlook that Detroit has been an ATM for bettors the past 2.5 seasons. In their last 48 games, the Lions are 37-11 straight up and 35-12-1 against the spread.

“There’s a little more money on the Lions right now, and that’s where I expect the public to be,” Feazel said. “The Lions have been good to bettors the past two seasons.”

I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie

There aren’t yet many major wagers on Week 1 NFL odds, with the bulk of tickets and money not coming in until the weekend. But Caesars reported a trio of five-figure plays:

• $22,000 Ravens pick vs. Bills. As long as Baltimore wins on the road, this bettor collects $20,000 profit Sunday night (total payout $42,000).
• $21,000 Browns +5.5 (-105) vs. Bengals. If Cleveland can just keep it close at home, then the bettor profits $20,000 (total payout $41,000).
• $20,000 Jaguars -3 (-105) vs. Panthers. A Jacksonville win by 3 or more against visiting Carolina nets this bettor $19,047.62 in profit (total payout $39,047.62).

The larger wagers at this time of year are more so on Super Bowl futures odds and the like. BetMGM noted a quartet of big bets:

• $55,000 Eagles +650 to win the Super Bowl. If Philly repeats, then the bettor profits $357,500 (total payout $412,500).
• $54,500 Lions +1000 to win the Super Bowl. A Motor City championship would net $545,000 profit (total payout $599,500).
• $10,000 Cowboys +2500 to win the NFC. This bet was made well before the Parsons trade; the Cowboys are now +3000. Regardless, if the unlikely happens and Dallas wins the conference title, then the bettor collects $250,000 profit (total payout $260,000).

The fourth wager stands to profit $1 million, and it’s certainly not out of the question: $50,000 Bengals +2000 to win the Super Bowl.

It’ll be worth the five-month wait if that ticket cashes. 

Enjoy NFL Week 1!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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