Trevor Lawrence picked his nose, tripped over his own feet, then scored a game-winning touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night.
Oh so close to a 5-1 weekend for my best bets.
This weekend, I’m betting against the No. 1 team in the country and shorting John Mateer in the Red River rivalry. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 Record: (15-18-1, -4.6 units)
No. 6 Oklahoma (-1.5, O/U 44.5) vs. Texas
We discussed the Mateer situation earlier this week. Oklahoma’s quarterback had surgery on his throwing thumb 16 days ago, and now he’s going to just tie on the Superman cape and beat Texas? Not so fast. I have serious doubts about his ability to grip the ball and do the things that make him great. This is a good entry point on a Longhorns team most people have written off.
PICK: Texas (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
No. 1 Ohio State (-14.5, O/U 50.5) @ No. 17 Illinois
I bet on the Buckeyes last week, and I’m against ‘em this week. It’s scary going against Matt Patricia’s defense, but what’s done is done. There’s a lot to like with Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer’s experience and playmaking skills, and my “magic number” in the game is 17. If the Illini score 17 points, they’ll cover. If they don’t, I’ll look stupid. Game on.
PICK: Illinois (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points or win outright
Old Dominion (-14.5, O/U 56.5) @ Marshall
The Monarchs are the best team you likely haven’t seen yet. Their running attack is ferocious, and they’ve been pounding teams since a Week 1 loss at Indiana. Respected bettor Tommy Lorenzo has been all over ODU for weeks, and he still thinks the market hasn’t caught up yet. “Marshall is susceptible to play action, and it continues to be a major issue,” Lorenzo told me.
PICK: Old Dominion (-14.5) to win by more than 14.5 points
No. 8 Alabama (-3, O/U 51.5) @ No. 14 Missouri
Hand up, I’m on the public road favorite in this one. Tide quarterback Ty Simpson has been special (1,478 passing yards, 13 TDs, one INT) and I’m not sure the Missouri defense can hold down Alabama’s passing attack for four quarters. It’s probably not fair to knock the Tigers for not playing anyone dangerous to this point, but at the same time, let’s see ‘em beat a good team.
PICK: Alabama (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, O/U 47.5)
Jacksonville got me Monday night with a pick-six and the aforementioned Trevor Lawrence “trip-over-his-feet” touchdown. So naturally, I’m going right back against the Jaguars. Seattle’s defense continues to improve under Mike Macdonald and I assume the Seahawks will do enough to make Lawrence uncomfortable in the pocket. And stop sleeping on Sam Darnold.
PICK: Seahawks (+1) to tie or win outright
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O/U 52.5)
The Chiefs’ lack of pass rush is alarming and if they can’t correct that issue by the trade deadline, I’m not so sure about a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, Detroit has been elite offensively, and we know Jared Goff is dangerous when there’s time in the pocket. Let’s also not forget that Dan Campbell is almost 70% against the spread (ATS), including a 24-11 mark as a ‘dog.
PICK: Lions (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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