Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
One week of the NBA playoffs is in the books.
Some series are just heating up and look to have a chance to go the full seven games, while other series … well, they were over before they even began.
The Thunder and Cavs have flexed their respective muscles, as both top seeds look poised to advance with ease to the conference semifinals. In the West, the Clippers, Timberwolves, and Warriors are all lower seeds in their respective matchups, but all managed to wrestle away home court advantage early on, putting themselves in a position where they can advance if they can win their home games.
In the East, a Cavaliers-Celtics Eastern Conference finals collision course seems to be inevitable, as both teams appear a cut above their conference foes.
With a full weekend of games ahead, let’s take a look at the action, and try to find some wagers that are worth making.
“Bucks In 6″ Correct Series Score, +1100 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
The Bucks have been thoroughly outplayed in the first two games of this series, as they not only face an 0-2 deficit, but they also face questions about the future of star Giannis Antetokounmpo. While the “Greek Freak” might be a hot topic for trade conversations this summer, perhaps he and his teammates can delay those conversations by rallying in this series.
Despite the series deficit, it’s not all bad for the Bucks. They got their other star, Damian Lillard, back from a blood clot for Game 2. Meanwhile, the Pacers have shown no ability to stop Antetokounmpo, as he’s averaging 34.5 points per game. Returning home to Milwaukee for Games 3 and 4 with a healthy complement of players could give the Bucks a chance to even this thing.
At 11-1 odds to win in six games (a $10 bet pays $110), this is justifiably a long shot considering the Bucks would need to win four in a row. However, with three of those four at home, I think the Bucks will be heard from in this series, and I’ll bite on the 11-1 potential payout.
Rockets +1.5 Games Series Spread, -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Coming into the playoffs, I thought the Rockets getting 1.5 games (we win our bet if the Rockets win the series or if the series goes seven games) was the best way to attack this series. After seeing how the first two games played out, I feel even stronger on this position.
Despite losing home court advantage (for now), the Rockets showed they have some real advantages in this series. Second-seeded Houston has out-rebounded the Warriors 99-69 over the first two games, collecting 33 total offensive rebounds. Not only is there a major advantage for the younger, more athletic Rockets on the glass, but now they face a perhaps depleted Warriors team, after Jimmy Butler suffered a pelvis contusion in Game 2.
With Butler’s status murky going forward, and the Rockets having more size and younger, fresher legs, getting 1.5 games here is still the play. A lot of who wins this series might come down to how healthy Butler is, and that’s something we just won’t know until we see him back in action.
I expect the Rockets to push the Warriors to the distance here, if not win the series.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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