Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NBA conference finals are here, and I’m confident we’re in for some really excellent basketball.
And with great basketball comes great wagers — one can only hope.
I’ve got three bets that I’m making right now before the next round tips off.
Let’s get into it.
Finals Matchup: Knicks to beat Timberwolves +1200
The world is backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to advance to the Finals and to win it all. I believe part of this has to do with the fact OKC beat mighty Denver. The Nuggets won a title a couple of years ago, and they have the best player in the league in Nikola Jokic. It was a galvanizing, hard-fought series. The public is all over 68-win OKC after watching that.
Meanwhile, Minnesota didn’t look particularly impressive, beating the Steph Curry-less Warriors. For me, the value is in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have the best player in Anthony Edwards and the better coach.
The Pacers, who I picked to beat the Cavs, beat the Knicks in seven games last year. But if you recall, they were down 2-0 and in a tie game before a 31-foot 3-pointer propelled them to a Game 3 win. The Knicks led most of the way. That could easily have been the Knicks’ series.
And they’re now better offensively with Karl Anthony Towns, and defensively with Mikal Bridges. I like the Knicks to dispatch the Pacers in what should be a good series.
The Finals would be tremendous, pitting two teams that traded second-tier stars in the offseason (Julius Randle for KAT). Knicks in 7.
PICK: Knicks (+1200) to beat the Timberwolves in NBA Finals
Anthony Edwards, Western Conference Finals MVP +360
Not sure if I’ve seen anyone besides myself taking the Wolves in this series, but I think there’s a lot of value in Edwards at +360 to be the MVP.
It’s a two-player race between SGA and Ant. And the edge here is that the Wolves have numerous players of various lengths and sizes to put on SGA. Most of the Thunder counters for Ant feature smaller players like Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Cason Wallace.
Let’s look at last year’s Western Conference finals. Even with an inferior roster, Edwards, at the age of 22, averaged 24.6 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists on 43/41/75 shooting. He had to carry the scoring load because KAT was such a mess that he played fewer minutes than fellow starters Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert.
Edwards has morphed into one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in the league this season (most makes in the NBA regular season), and that experience is a huge edge the Thunder don’t have.
PICK: Anthony Edwards (+360) Western Conference finals MVP
Is ‘face of the NBA’ on the line for Anthony Edwards in Western finals?
Jalen Brunson to score 45+ points in any game
On the surface, it’s crazy. Brunson hasn’t topped 45 in a game since Dec. 28! He hasn’t topped 40 in these playoffs. That’s in large part due to the opponents he faced, including rugged Detroit and all those elite defenders on Boston.
The Pacers are not defensive stalwarts (13th in defensive efficiency), and Brunson torched them last year in the playoffs (43 in Game 1, 44 in Game 5).
I can hear you asking, “But Jason, what about this season?” Well, in three games, Brunson was quiet against Indy, only averaging 22 points. But one game was a blowout for the Knicks the first week of the season, the other was a blowout for the Pacers, and foul trouble limited Brunson to 23 minutes in another N.Y. win.
If the regular season series against Boston taught us anything — a series where the Knicks went 0-4 and had three very bad losses — it’s to not put a ton of stock in the regular season.
Last year, the Knicks had a rugged seven-game series against the 76ers, and then Brunson was torching the Pacers before the entire team started to fall apart physically. The Knicks got a lengthy rest after the conference semifinals win over Boston this week. While Nesmith and Nembhard are good defenders, neither has had any success against Brunson in games that matter.
PICK: Jalen Brunson to score 45+ points in any game
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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