Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Midsummer Classic is upon us, with the National League hosting the American League on Tuesday night at Truist Park in Atlanta.
For some, the MLB All-Star break is a welcome opportunity to relax and recharge the batteries before the second half of the season.
Others (and I’ll include myself here) are bored without baseball during the summer, and we want some action before play resumes Friday!
The American League has dominated the All-Star Game in recent years, winning 10 out of the last 11 matchups.
Does that trend continue, or does the National League punch back and get just its second win since 2012?
I’ve thought all year that the National League has more contenders and is the slightly more talented league. But does that translate to a one-game exhibition setting on Tuesday night? While both teams are stacked with dominant pitching and outstanding hitters, both teams also saw their fair share of opt-outs due to either nagging injuries or pitchers who started this past weekend not wanting to pitch on short rest.
However, what I prefer to focus on is the All-Star Game MVP market.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, to nobody’s surprise, are the favorites to win All-Star Game MVP, with both players around 6-1 odds. The nature of the All-Star Game is usually close and low-scoring, and lends itself to someone winning MVP with a late hit that wins the game.
With starters usually getting just an at-bat or two, the players who come off the bench are the ones who might have a good chance of winning this award.
Last year, Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran had 50-1 odds and broke a 3-3 tie with a fifth-inning home run that earned him MVP, as nobody scored the rest of the game. Two years ago, a 2-2 tie was broken late by then-Rockies catcher Elias Diaz, who homered to give the National League a 3-2 win, and Diaz captured honors at incredible 200-1 odds.
So my advice would be to find a position player who isn’t a starter and take a shot with them at some longer odds.
Admittedly, it’s very hard to handicap because so much of winning MVP comes down to getting an at-bat at the right time, ideally with players on base with a chance to win the game late.
Only two pitchers have won this award in recent memory. Mariano Rivera won in 2013 (his final year in the majors) when the game was in New York, and Shane Bieber in 2019, when the game was in Cleveland. Both were sentimental choices, considering where the game was played, so I’d stick with a hitter when trying to find this year’s winner.
And that’s why I’m eyeing Kyle Stowers.
Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers will make his first All-Star appearance on Tuesday.
The Marlins’ slugger comes into this game hot. He went 5-for-5 with three home runs in his last game prior to the break, tallying seven hits over the three-game series against his former team, the Orioles, this past weekend.
He fits the profile. He’s a bench player who can win the game late with a big hit, and you’re getting monster odds at 100-1. While the game is a coin-flip, I do think the National League is slightly better, so I opted for an NL player.
Brent Rooker (65-1) and Pete Alonso (45-1) were also players I considered, but I’m going with the underrated Stowers to jump into the National spotlight and win All-Star Game MVP.
PICK: Kyle Stowers (+10000) to win MLB All-Star Game MVP
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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