Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The 19-day, 64-team NCAA men’s tournament tips off Thursday and millions of Americans will wager billions of dollars in almost 40 states.
Are you ready?
Bookmakers started opening their side and total markets last Sunday and bettors have mostly whacked everything into shape over the last few days. I’ve circled my favorite seven bets on the first-round slate, and I’m hoping to do some damage so you’re flush for the games this weekend.
Let’s go to work.
Thursday, March 20
No. 14 Wisconsin (-17, O/U 151.5) vs. No. 3 Montana
Nobody was happier than I was when Wisconsin lost in the Big Ten Championship because it removed some of the recent shine. It was the Badgers’ fourth game in four days, and they simply ran out of gas in the second half. I assure you they’ll be ready to go Thursday in Denver. Wisconsin’s offensive efficiency is off the charts, and it doesn’t turn the ball over. Don’t be surprised if you flip on the game early and Montana is down 27-10.
PICK: Wisconsin (-17) to win by more than 17 points
No. 4 Purdue (-8, O/U 153.5) vs. No. 13 High Point
High Point is another upset darling among college basketball pundits and, while I don’t think it’s the worst idea, I like the total more. The Panthers have the size inside to negate a lot of Purdue’s action toward the rim. It’s shaping up to be a rather physical game, which helps, too. All we need is a five-minute stretch of bricks and thuds, and we should be okay.
PICK: Under 153.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 2 Tennessee (-18.5, O/U 133.5) vs. No. 15 Wofford
When it comes to blowouts, that’s what I forecast here. Wofford lives off slow pace and half-court sets, which is the worst way to play Tennessee. The Volunteers boast a top-three defense in multiple metrics and the last thing you want to do is let them get set on that end of the floor. I think this one has a decent chance to get ugly and I also considered playing some Vols first half.
PICK: Tennessee (-18.5) to win by more than 18.5 points
No. 9 Gonzaga (-6.5, O/U 150.5) vs No. 8 Georgia
The market actually bet this total down, which I disagree with. College hoops handicapper Alex White makes her true number 158 and that’s music to my ears. Gonzaga’s offense is the star of the show, and the Zags are going to put the ball in the basket a ton. Also, Georgia gave up 80 points or more six times during SEC play and there’s no reason to think we don’t get close here.
PICK: Over 150.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 5 Michigan (-2.5, O/U 142.5) vs. No. 12 UC San Diego
This is a very polarizing game. It was one of Seth Davis’ major upset proclamations on Selection Sunday, then DraftKings opened Michigan -3.5. If you thought that was low, think again because bettors still bet UC San Diego. There’s a lot to like about the Tritons’ guard play. And yes, they’re good at turning teams over. But they didn’t face many good teams. Michigan is 13-4 in games decided by five points or fewer, and I’ll buy ‘em cheap on the moneyline.
PICK: Michigan ML -140
March Madness opening round best bets
Friday, March 21
No. 4 Maryland (-10.5, O/U 150.5) vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon
Maryland’s starting five is very good, but Grand Canyon’s depth is better. The Lopes play at a ferocious pace and head coach Bryce Drew will often use line changes to keep his guys fresh. This isn’t a great travel spot for the Terps either, who have to play all the way across the country in Seattle. This is a ton of points to give a good defense and I think GCU hangs around.
PICK: Grand Canyon (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points or win outright
No. 2 Michigan State (-17.5, O/U 152.5) vs. No. 15 Bryant
If you haven’t seen the Bulldogs play this year, get ready. They run the court like the Energizer bunny on speed. Michigan State’s defense is extremely stingy, but Bryant’s pace could be a pain. It’s always a little dangerous taking these big spreads because the worst-case scenario is always a blowout, but I’m willing to find out if Sparty can slow Bryant down for 40 minutes.
PICK: Bryant (+17.5) to lose by fewer than 17.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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