Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
By most accounts, sportsbooks came out ahead of the public betting masses over the first four days of March Madness odds. But the recreational bettors made it a close chase by the time the dust settled on the second round Sunday night.
A key reason why: The SEC — the best conference in the land — paid off for the public, sending seven teams to the Sweet 16.
“Johnny Six-Pack and the betting public got plenty of moments all weekend, with the SEC dominating, Overs cashing and many of the late games seeing public teams cashing,” said Rich Zanco, head of college basketball trading for Caesars Sports. “Overall, we held serve, getting some of the bigger decisions. But it was extremely choppy.”
A few oddsmakers helped recap the weekend that was in March Madness.
Oh Say, Can You SEC
The Southeastern Conference played a part in four of Sunday’s eight second-round games. And the SEC teams went 4-0 straight up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS).
No. 3 seed Kentucky was actually a 2.5-point underdog vs. No. 6 seed Illinois. But the Wildcats claimed an 84-75 victory. No. 2 seed Alabama was a 5-point favorite vs. No. 7 seed St. Mary’s and won 80-66. No. 6 seed Ole Miss, a 5.5-point ‘dog, knocked out No. 3 seed Iowa State 91-78.
“We lost big on Alabama and Ole Miss,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said, while noting the ACC’s Duke and Big Ten’s Michigan State were big losers for the house, as well.
No. 1 seed Florida was the only SEC team not to cover the spread Sunday. The Gators were 9-point favorites and held off No. 8 seed UConn — the two-time defending national champion — for a 77-75 win.
But the Gators at least won, in the day’s first game, which later proved pivotal for public bettors, thanks to …
Moneyline Parlay Mania
In the first round of the NCAA Tournament, the public gets excited to wager on trendy underdogs posting upset wins. The Drakes and High Points and Yales and UC San Diegos of the world. But No. 11 seed Drake was the only first-round winner of those four, upsetting No. 6 seed Missouri 67-57 as a 6-point underdog.
Then Drake lost to Texas Tech 77-64 on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
By the time Sunday rolled around, recreational bettors went back to their NFL formula, which was moneyline parlays on the favorites. That meant picking favorites to just win, regardless of the final margin.
The strategy worked.
“It was a tough day for us,” SuperBook vice president John Murray said. “We really needed Florida or Maryland or Michigan State to lose, and we just couldn’t get it. Maryland would’ve been huge.”
Instead, the fourth-seeded Terrapins beat No. 12 seed Colorado State 72-71 on a buzzer-beating basket. That kept alive a lot of moneyline parlays that then went to Michigan State.
The fourth-seeded Spartans proceeded to beat No. 10 seed New Mexico 71-63. So, The SuperBook gave back a chunk of what it pocketed from Thursday through Saturday.
“It was a combination of some of our [bigger bettors] doing well and the public betting those moneyline parlays,” Murray said, while noting his shop still did well to the first four days. “It was a good weekend. Handle was great, up from last year, and we won really good numbers Thursday, Friday and Saturday.”
Futures Fallout
Saturday was a solid day for the SEC, as well, as the conference went 3-1 SU and ATS. That included No. 10 seed Arkansas’ 75-66 upset of No. 2 seed St. John’s, with the Razorbacks 7-point underdogs.
But generally, oddsmakers were just fine with that SEC victory. St. John’s was among the biggest national championship liabilities at several sportsbooks.
“Arkansas beating St. John’s was our best game of the entire second round,” Murray said. “It was very good to get St. John’s out. That was a big one for us.”
Longer odds on the Red Storm were available preseason and earlier in the season at +8000 or more. A few bets at those prices can make liability quickly add up. A BetMGM customer had a $2,000 bet on St. John’s +5000, for a potential win of $100,000. And as Murray noted, his shop was well underwater on St. John’s.
By the time the NCAA Tournament began, the Big East champs were among the top eight teams on the board, with odds in the +2500 range.
It’s Never Under ‘Til It’s Over
As Zanco alluded to above, some key Overs hit over the past four days. And the public loves nothing more than lots of scoring.
Through 48 games of March Madness, the Under is currently 27-20-1. But again, the Over is more significant in the more popular matchups. For example, Sunday’s UConn-Florida tilt, in which the total closed at 150.5.
Florida led 77-72 in the waning seconds, but UConn’s Liam McNeeley sank a seemingly meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer, making the final score Florida 77, UConn 75.
And pushing the total from 149 to 152. That’s an Over.
“That just wasn’t a good result for us,” Murray said. “We had some big house players on UConn plus the points (+9). And on top of that, UConn hit the 3-pointer to get the Over. That was about the worst-case scenario.”
UConn’s loss marked the end of a brilliant 13-0 SU streak in NCAA Tournament games, on runs to the last two national championships, plus Friday’s 67-59 first-round win over Oklahoma. The Huskies covered in every one of those victories, which was equally impressive.
In fact, as Murray noted, UConn covered Sunday as a 9-point underdog vs. Florida. So, presuming the Huskies make the 2026 NCAA Tournament, they’ll enter on a red-hot 14-0 ATS streak.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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