Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
March Madness odds made way for moneyline mania through much of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Or, more accurately: favorite, moneyline, parlay mania, as the public betting masses consistently cashed out.
From the Sweet 16 through the first game of the Final Four — in which Florida held off Auburn — favorites went a perfect 13-0 straight up (SU). Florida’s win perfectly set up championship favorite Duke to cash another pile of moneyline parlays on Saturday night against Houston.
That is, until Duke blew a seven-point lead in the final 1:26. Houston closed on a shocking 11-1 run for a 70-67 upset, which led to much rejoicing from oddsmakers.
“A complete collapse by Duke was just what we needed,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
A few oddsmakers helped recap the weekend that was in Final Four odds, and looked ahead to Florida vs. Houston odds in Monday’s final.
Comeback Cougars
Midway through the second half, Houston was in deep trouble against Duke. The Cougars trailed 56-42 with 11:54 remaining, and with 8:17 left, it was still a 14-point gap at 59-45.
With 1:26 remaining, Cooper Flagg hit two free throws to put Duke up 66-59. But the Blue Devils would score just one point the rest of the way, while Houston stunningly rallied with 11 points, including the final nine.
It was practically sports thievery, which is how Rich Zanco described it, from his perch as Caesars Sports’ head of college basketball trading.
“That was a huge swing overall for us, with the ‘dog winning outright. It feels like the Houston Cougars committed a felony, stealing that game down the stretch,” Zanco said.
Added BetMGM national trading manager Seamus Magee: “It’s the best result we could’ve asked for. Futures liability, parlays, spread bets, etc. It was a huge win.”
One more market also fell in favor of the bookmakers. The SuperBook saw a flurry of activity on Duke’s team total, as the public piled on Over 70. With just one meager free throw in the final 1:26, Duke’s 67 points fell short of that team total.
“Houston winning outright and Duke’s team total saying under was very good for us. Crazy finish,” SuperBook vice president John Murray said.
Pendulum Swing
From basically the Tournament’s first Sunday — the second day of the second round — through Florida’s 79-73 win over Auburn, favorites didn’t necessarily cover the point spread. But they won almost every game.
Chalk went 6-2 SU on second-round Sunday, including the final two matchups of that day — Maryland over Colorado State 72-71 on a buzzer-beater, and Arizona over Oregon 87-83.
The favorites went 8-0 SU in the Sweet 16 and 4-0 in the Elite 8, followed by Florida’s win over Auburn. Fifteen consecutive games without a single underdog victory.
Until Houston’s miracle win.
“That seems like the first good result since the Tournament started,” Shelton said. “It’s a huge relief as far as the championship futures market is concerned. We do well to both teams.”
Nationally, a Duke national title was the worst possible outcome for BetMGM and Caesars Sports, among others. As Zanco noted before the Final Four: “We need Duke out of there. Then we can take the oxygen mask off.”
The bookies are now breathing easier, heading to Monday’s 8:50 p.m. ET tip between Florida and Houston.
The Final Countdown
BetMGM Nevada opened Florida vs. Houston championship game odds at Gators -1.5. On Sunday night, it was still Florida -1.5.
“There’s quite a bit of action on here already,” Shelton said Sunday evening. “It’s 2/1 tickets and money on Florida on the point spread.”
On the moneyline — wagering on which team wins the game, regardless of margin — Shelton said Houston has twice as many tickets as Florida, but the money is almost even.
When factoring in championship futures betting, a market that’s basically been open for 12 months, BetMGM Nevada has a very clear need on Monday night.
“We’re gonna be huge Houston fans. We win on both teams, but we win a lot more on a Houston championship,” Shelton said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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