Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The LIV Golf League is headed back to America.
After stops in Saudi Arabia, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore, we’re headed to Trump National Doral in Miami, Fla. It’ll be the first stateside event this season, and it’ll serve as a major tune-up for anyone headed to Augusta.
Dean Burmester earned the victory in Miami last year.
Most of the marquee names are playing this weekend and Jon Rahm (+600) sits atop the betting board at DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s a dollar ahead of Joaquin Niemann (+700) and three up on Bryson DeChambeau (+900).
Odds to win LIV Golf Miami
Jon Rahm: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Joaquin Niemann: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Bryson DeChambeau: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Tyrrell Hatton: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Sergio Garcia: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Brooks Koepka: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
David Puig: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Abraham Ancer: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Dean Burmester: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Tom McKibbin: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Patrick Reed: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Louis Oosthuizen: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Paul Casey: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Sebastian Munoz: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Marc Leishman: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Cam Smith: +3000 (bet $10 wins $310 total)
There’s no argument with Rahm as the favorite and Niemann will be assuredly popular given he’s won two of the four tournaments so far this season.
But favorites aren’t exactly my style.
One of the first things I do before making a golf bet is cross-reference American odds with the prices Jeff Davis has at Circa Sports in Las Vegas. Davis is one of the premier golf bookmakers in the country, and it’s always worth it to compare his market with other sportsbooks.
Circa is currently dealing shorter numbers on the favorites — Rahm (+505), Niemann (+600) and DeChambeau (+675) — which naturally increases the prices on the second and third-tier golfers down the board.
For example, Abraham Ancer is 20/1 at DraftKings and 32/1 at Circa.
“We’re writing mostly sharp action on LIV events,” Davis told FOX Sports. “It allows us to mold our prices quickly, and we can take chances on golfers that aren’t drawing much sharp attention at the window.”
Elsewhere, Davis and Co. are daring you to place an outright bet on a guy like Louis Oosthuizen. Circa has Oosthuizen at 43/1 while other shops are closer to the 20 to 25/1 range. That’s the definition of a book taking a stance.
“Give ‘em fair odds and see what happens,” Davis added.
I prefer to bet head-to-head matchups over outrights. The payouts aren’t as exorbitant, but you obviously have a much easier chance to beat one golfer instead of the entire field. Ancer (-115) over Paul Casey (-105) is one of my favorite matchups that’s being offered at DraftKings.
If you’re looking to wager a little pizza money on a LIV Golf Miami outright winner, I’m never against betting Brooks Koepka in the 20/1 range. And maybe Chris “The Bear” Fallica is eyeing Tom McKibbin at 25/1.
Whatever you do, be sure to get the best of the number.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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