Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Kentucky Derby odds are a bit different than typical sports betting.
Most horse racing action comes in the form of parimutuel betting, in which all wagers are pooled and the house — the sportsbook or racebook — gets a set percentage of the amount bet.
So in the wake of the 2025 Derby, you won’t see too many pieces about the public betting masses cleaning up or the bookmakers taking a bath.
However, some sportsbooks also offered the more standard fixed-odds betting, taking wagers on which horse would win. Ostensibly, it’s like a futures bet on a golf tournament or a NASCAR race.
And there were decisions, though, generally speaking, the books still came out well.
Caesars Sports horse racing trader Jason Jingeleski helps recap wagering on 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Exit Sandman
Sandman was a trendy play throughout the week leading up to Saturday’s Triple Crown opener at Churchill Downs. Caesars opened Sandman as the 6/1 third choice, and he got as long as 9/1, but ultimately closed as the 5/1 second choice at post time.
However, Sandman — whose name is a hat tip to Metallica’s megahit “Enter Sandman” — didn’t particularly like the wet, muddy conditions. He finished 12.5 lengths behind winner Sovereignty.
“With 11% of tickets written on Sandman, he was our most popular bet,” Jingeleski said, while noting that even if Sandman won, Caesars would’ve still scored a modest win on the Derby odds market.
Sovereignty in the Slop
On the flip side, Sovereignty found the track conditions to his liking. Under jockey Junior Alvarado, Sovereignty overtook favored Journalism in the front stretch to win in 2 minutes, 2.31 seconds.
Sovereignty opened as the 5/1 second choice, but slid out as far as 11/1 and closed 10/1 at post time. If you’d gotten down on the 3-year-old at 11/1 (+1100), a $100 bet would’ve netted a tidy profit of $1,100 (total payout $1,200).
Sovereignty drew a fair amount of action to win, though not enough to put Caesars in the red.
“It wasn’t the most favorable decision, but Sovereignty’s first-place finish was a positive decision for Caesars,” Jingeleski said.
Favorite Falls Just short
Journalism was the favorite all week long at Caesars, opening at 5/2, stretching out to 4/1, then closing at 7/2. He finished second, 1.5 lengths behind Sovereignty.
“Journalism accounted for the second-highest ticket count on the Kentucky Derby,” Jingeleski said, adding that a Journalism victory — much like Sovereignty and Sandman — still would’ve been a winner for the book.
“We had two horses that would have been favorable decisions for the public: Flying Mohawk, who closed at 25/1, and Render Judgment, who closed at 16/1,” Jingeleski said.
However, neither finished anywhere near the lead. In a 19-horse field, Render Judgment was 17th and Flying Mohawk 18th.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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