There are college football games this weekend, and then there is The Game this weekend.
Please tell me you know the difference.
Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 14 of the college football season — Rivalry Week — including how I see Ohio State-Michigan playing out.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
No. 1 Ohio State @ No. 15 Michigan
Ohio State enters this Big Game as the best team in the country, but it needs to finally beat Michigan.
The Buckeyes have lost four straight to the Wolverines, including that massive upset last season. I’m tempted to believe the Buckeyes get it right in a big way on Saturday because they are far better than Michigan this season, but rivalry games between two good teams are never that cut and dry.
It’s why we love the sport.
Michigan will be the best team OSU has played this season and vice versa. Yes, Ohio State played Texas in Week 1 and Michigan played Oklahoma in Week 2, but Michigan is better now and Ohio State has improved with quarterback Julian Sayin having an entire season under his belt.
Ohio State is third in points per drive on offense and first in points per drive on defense. It is second in the country in third-down offense and third in third-down defense. Michigan is 36th in points per drive on offense and 26th on defense. It is 14th in third-down offense and 43rd on defense. So, there is a little gap between the two teams, especially considering Michigan’s offense operates so differently than Ohio State’s.
Michigan employs a rush-first attack that relies on physicality in the trenches and leaning on its opponent, with the hopes of eventually popping some big runs late. Quarterback Bryce Underwood is finishing up his true freshman season and the talent is there, but he can’t throw the ball consistently and with much touch yet. He’s only completing 62% of passes and has just nine TD passes. That, plus the Michigan offensive line is fine but not great.
To sum up, I’m concerned about Michigan’s ability to score against this Ohio State defense, which just doesn’t allow points. Michigan is also poor at converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns because it can’t pass accurately, and the offensive line doesn’t punch a hole in the defense. In the red zone, when the field is compressed and the safeties are closer to the line of scrimmage, you must knock the defense back to create rushing lanes.
I like Michigan Under 16.5 points in this game. I would not be surprised if Ohio State covered as well, but not an official play.
PICK: Michigan Under 16.5 points scored
UCLA at No. 17 USC -21.5
USC is going to smoke UCLA this weekend.
For starters, the Trojans are so much better at home than on the road. We covered this last week before they played Oregon. They score more points, throw and rush for more yards, and are better on third down at the house. They also allow fewer points. They do tend to play with a lead at home, which helps their poor run defense.
UCLA was a fun story for about three weeks when it upset Penn State, beat Michigan State and then beat Maryland. Since then, the Bruins got cooked by Indiana, lost to Nebraska, got dominated by Ohio State and just lost big to Washington. They do just about nothing well right now and their quarterback is likely out after getting injured against UW.
USC takes its anger out against UCLA and this one isn’t close.
PICK: USC (-21.5) to win by more than 21.5 points
Oregon State @ Washington State -13.5
These teams played a month ago, with Oregon State winning its first game against a FBS team via a 10-7 victory at home. Oregon State’s post-game win expectancy was 39% for that game and the Cougars were without lots of starters on the offensive line.
WSU is healthier and gets to host the Beavers to end the season. The Cougars are 5-0 at home this year. Their offense does struggle to move the ball, but the defense is 43rd in points per drive. Oregon State is 122nd in points per drive on offense and near 100th on defense.
This one is going to get out of hand as the Cougars exact revenge.
PICK: Washington State (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
Read the full article here
