2025 CFB Week 4 Picks, Predictions: Will Notre Dame Get Back on Track?

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Heading into Week 4, I’ve begun to see a majority of college football programs for what they are.

With that, let’s dive into my three picks for the week.

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Iowa @ Rutgers

Teams that can’t complete a forward pass are nearly automatic fades for me, especially when they are on the road in conference games.

Through three games this season, Iowa’s offense has continued its years-long struggle to be a successful passing offense. The Hawkeyes went to the portal to grab South Dakota State quarterback Mark Gronowski, and he’s struggled this season against Albany, Iowa State and Massachusetts. He’s completing 58% of passes with a measly 8.3 yards per completion.

That’s not yards per attempt, that’s yards per completion, and Gronowski’s air yards per target is just 6.1, which is good for 124th in the country.

While Iowa’s rushing offense has been good, it has gone up against no one. Iowa’s explosive play rate, a metric I lean on heavily to preview games, is abysmal at 135th in the country.

The Rutgers defense is ranked 54th in efficiency but 122nd in yards per play, which does concern me in this matchup. However, Iowa played two defenses worse than Rutgers and still couldn’t move the ball like it should.

Conversely, the Rutgers offense has been fantastic in its three games. The Scarlet Knights have scored 34, 45 and 60 behind Athan Kaliakamanis at quarterback. In his second season at Rutgers, he’s seen improvement all over the place. He’s completing 73% of passes with 13.2 yards per completion. His adjusted air yards per attempt ranks 17th nationally.

In other words, this is a Rutgers offense attempting and executing a deeper passing game this season.

The Scarlet Knights will need the passing game to click against Iowa because the Hawkeyes defense is still very good. Rutgers will not be able to run the ball. If Rutgers can win first down, it will set itself up for success, as the Iowa defense has been poor on third and medium.

In the end, I like this spot for Rutgers. It’s a national television game on a Friday night against an Iowa quarterback who can’t complete passes.

PICK: Rutgers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

Purdue @ No. 24 Notre Dame

Notre Dame is 0-2 and ready to take its anger out on this Purdue team.

The Irish lost by three on the final play against Miami and then lost by one to Texas A&M on the final play of the game last Saturday night. Both of their losses came to teams ranked in the top 20 in efficiency. Purdue is ranked 78th heading into this game, and while it kept the game close against USC for periods of time, it ultimately committed too many turnovers to win. Notre Dame is far better than USC at nearly every position and the Irish should be able to impose their will.

This game is just a simple handicap. This Irish team will welcome an opportunity to play a lesser team and Purdue is off an emotional home drubbing by the Trojans.

PICK: Notre Dame (-24.5) to win by more than 24.5 points

Arkansas @ Memphis

This number has jumped to over a touchdown favorite for Arkansas, and I’m going to back Memphis here for a few reasons.

For starters, Memphis is looking to make a splash with a SEC opponent coming to town. This is a rare opportunity for a group of five team, and Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield is going to treat this like a Super Bowl.

Memphis has played no one, but its numbers are still outstanding to start the season. It is 55th in points per drive while being sixth on defense, and that defense is the biggest improvement through three weeks.

This is a tricky spot for Arkansas. It just lost a high-scoring game at Ole Miss and now heads back on the road to play the Tigers. After Memphis, the Razorbacks get to host Notre Dame in their place.

It won’t be easy for Memphis to cover this game. The Razorback offense has been outstanding. It is seventh in points per drive, with quarterback Taylen Green throwing for nearly 900 yards with 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas has been OK at limiting points but has given up a ton of yards, which would help Memphis greatly.

PICK: Memphis (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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