Four teams are left, and three games remain before a national champion is crowned on Monday night in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
While this tournament was not as unpredictable and full of upsets as it has been in past years — and perhaps that’s going to be the norm after all 1-seeds made up the Final Four last year — we are set for two outstanding matchups on Saturday night in Indianapolis.
Let’s take a look at each game and find some best bets.
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No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn
Back in November, UConn head coach Dan Hurley told the media his team was going to be celebrating Thanksgiving on Wednesday instead of Thursday, and that tryptophan would not get in the way of the team’s Black Friday showdown against Illinois.
That approach paid off, as UConn won 74-61 in Madison Square Garden.
Four months later, they meet again, with the winner of this one heading to the national title game.
In the first meeting, Illinois often got lost defensively trying to defend UConn’s endless motion and screening, leading to offensive success and a win for the Huskies.
But that version of Illinois was different than the one that we’ll see Saturday.
This specifically pertains to Keaton Wagler, the freshman sensation for Illinois who only saw the floor for 14 minutes and attempted three shots in that November meeting. Now, Wagler has emerged as one of the nation’s best players and will likely be a lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft.
This is not the vintage UConn team that won back-to-back titles in ‘23 and ‘24, and the Huskies have not shot the 3-pointer well for the majority of this Tournament. But betting against Hurley in March (in this case, April) is like betting against Patrick Mahomes in January.
Hurley has won 17 out of his last 18 Tournament games. He has also covered 17 of his last 18 Tournament games.
I’m betting that Monday night, UConn will take the floor determined to qualify for its third national title game in four years.
PICK: UConn (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points or win outright
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona
Buckle up for this one, as two juggernauts square off in the late game Saturday night.
These teams have combined to lose only five games all year, and both teams are dominant on each end of the floor. In all of Michigan’s three losses, the Wolverines shot poorly from beyond the arc. They were 8-for-25 in a loss to Wisconsin, 6-for-25 in a loss to Duke and 7-for-24 in the Big Ten title game loss to Purdue.
Simply put, if the Wolverines are making their 3s, they’re very tough to beat. If they’re not, they can be vulnerable.
Meanwhile, Arizona has only two losses and one of them came in a game where star freshman and projected lottery pick Koa Peat got injured against Texas Tech.
Both of these teams have won every Tournament game by double digits and are so dominant that it’s almost hard to believe one of them will not make it to the title game on Monday night.
Ultimately, in what is a coin-flip game, I’m going with Arizona because you’re getting 1.5 points in a game I think is evenly matched.
Arizona has a plethora of NBA bodies, and the Wildcats’ size and strength around the rim is why I’m picking them to advance.
PICK: Arizona (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
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