Only 16 teams remain in the NCAA Tournament, as play resumes Thursday evening.
After an opening weekend that saw most of the favorites advance, a lack of upsets sets the table for what promises to be some incredible matchups going forward.
By Sunday night, we will have a Final Four set, so let’s take a look at each game, and which teams might win their way to Indianapolis.
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No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue
Sean Miller’s Texas squad went from the bubble to the First Four to the Sweet 16 after banking three Tournament wins. The Longhorns face a Purdue team that seems to be peaking at the right time after a disappointing regular season. I’m betting on a closer game than expected here. Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, and Texas is elite at getting to the foul line (eighth in the country averaging 26 free-throw attempts per game). Purdue beat Miami by 10 in the last round, but that was a four-point game with under a minute left before Purdue pulled away with late free throws. I like Texas to hang around.
PICK: Texas (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points or win outright
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Part of Black Friday tradition involves these teams squaring off on the gridiron, but now they meet on the hardwood for a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. Iowa is as close to a Cinderella as we have in this Tournament, after the Hawkeyes got the upset win over double-digit favorite Florida. I was hoping to get Iowa plus a handful of points again, but with a line of 1.5, I’m looking at the total — particularly the Under of 132.5. The first meeting between these two teams was 57-52, and with this game taking place in an NBA arena (Toyota Center in Houston), perhaps the shooting backdrop gives us another low-scoring duel between two teams who love to slow the tempo.
PICK: Under 132.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 1 Arizona
There’s a lot of sentiment for the underdog Razorbacks here, but I think Arizona is the way to go. Arkansas has been hot as of late, but wins over Hawaii and High Point aren’t enough to convince me the Razorbacks are ready to hang with the juggernaut that is Arizona. Florida beat Arkansas by 34 points near the end of the regular season. I think this loaded Arizona team presents similar challenges here.
PICK: Arizona (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston
What an awesome matchup this is, between two teams that are worthy of winning the title. Houston will play within walking distance of its campus, and the line has gone up from 1.5 at open to now 3.5. Home court favors Houston, but these are relatively even teams, so I will take the points in a game I expect to go down to the wire.
PICK: Illinois (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke
For the first time since 1999, St. John’s is back in the Sweet 16, thanks to a buzzer-beating layup to oust Kansas. St. John’s has the size inside to match up with Duke phenom Cam Boozer, and giving seven points to Rick Pitino seems like an awful lot. Points could be at a premium here, and Duke trailed both Siena and TCU in the second half of its first two Tournament games.
PICK: St. John’s (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
No. 4 Alabama at No. 1 Michigan (-9.5, 174.5)
Alabama is always dangerous with its willingness and ability to chuck a bunch of 3-point attempts, and if the Tide get hot early, look out. But ultimately, I expect Michigan to score at will, especially with the Wolverines’ dominance on the glass likely leading to too many second-chance points for Alabama to sustain.
PICK: Michigan team total Over 92.5 points
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn (-2, 136.5)
This will be another incredible matchup, with championship coaches Tom Izzo and Dan Hurley trying to get one step closer to another Final Four. UConn has been inconsistent throughout the year and has struggled from the outside, despite winning its first two Tournament games. I expect a half-court game, with two good rebounding teams limiting second-chance opportunities. Izzo and Hurley are two of the most intense coaches there are. I expect their teams to mirror their personalities in what should be a close, low-scoring game.
PICK: Under 136.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 6 Tennessee vs No. 2 Iowa State (-4.5, 138.5)
I’m surprised this line is as high as it is. Iowa State stud forward Joshua Jefferson appears unlikely to play once again, and Tennessee is an elite rebounding squad that possesses a ton of athleticism. In what could be a close game, it’s important to keep in mind that Iowa State is a poor free-throw shooting team (67.1%), a statistic that could doom the Cyclones.
PICK: Tennessee (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points or win outright
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