The shot heard ‘round the sportsbooks had a huge impact on how bettors and bookmakers did to March Madness odds over the weekend.
You might call it a split decision. For some sportsbooks, Braylon Mullins’ dagger 3-pointer for UConn was a huge positive, blowing up a heap of moneyline parlays that had Duke as the final leg.
Caesars Sports, though, wasn’t among the beneficiaries.
“That was a monster swing for us, as we took some healthy six-digit bets on UConn moneyline,” Caesars head of college basketball trading Rich Zanco said. “UConn and Danny Hurley were embraced by the wiseguys and the betting public, as well.”
More on the weekend that was, as multiple oddsmakers recap betting on NCAA Tournament odds for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds.
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Comeback Kings
Late in the first half of Sunday’s East Region final, No. 2 seed UConn trailed No. 1 Duke by 19 points, 44-25. It was negligibly better at halftime, with the Huskies down 44-29.
Pregame, UConn was a +180 moneyline underdog to pull out the win, meaning a $100 bet would net $180 profit (total payout $280). On in-game wagering, with the Huskies down 19, the UConn moneyline ballooned to the +1800 range.
So if you took a $100 flier at that point, then it would profit $1,800 (total payout $1,900), in the unlikely event that UConn won.
Except UConn indeed won.
With 10 seconds remaining, the Huskies were within two at 72-70. Then Duke committed a stunning turnover near mid-court, leading to Mullins’ deep 3-pointer, which splashed down with 0.4 seconds left, giving UConn a shocking 73-72 victory.
All of a sudden, Zanco had a huge headache, mostly because of those pregame high-rollers, who secured a huge payday on moneyline wagers.
“Not an ideal result whatsoever. But Hurley is a proven winner, a former champion,” Zanco said, noting the UConn coach’s back-to-back titles in 2023-24.
Like everywhere else, Caesars saw plenty of moneyline parlays on the Elite Eight favorites on Saturday and Sunday. But beating the public parlays wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the major wagers that landed on a UConn upset.
“Yeah, the moneyline parlays all went down. But overall, it was a seven-figure swing. It would’ve been more ideal if Duke won the game and UConn covered +4.5,” Zanco said. “But it was a helluva shot, helluva play, helluva comeback in the second half.”
On the flip side was The SuperBook, whose concern Sunday was solely favorite moneyline parlays. Illinois, Arizona and Michigan all came through with Elite Eight wins — and spread-covers — against Iowa, Purdue and Tennessee, respectively.
Duke was the last piece of the parlay puzzle but somehow imploded in the second half.
“Duke losing killed a bunch of parlays that would’ve made it a bad day,” SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said. “That was a big shot. We wanted a UConn win.”
Bookies Beat Bettors
Interestingly, The SuperBook still took a small loss on Sunday’s results, pretty much due to No. 1 Michigan trampling Tennessee 95-62.
But SuperBook customers would’ve had a field day if Duke just held it together and even more so if the Blue Devils covered the 4.5-point spread.
“We went from a big losing day to a small losing day,” Degnon said, noting that the outcome secured a solid Sweet 16 and Elite Eight overall result. “It was a great weekend for us. On Thursday, we had a big bet on Houston-Illinois Over 140, so the Under was good for us.”
That matchup ended up quite low-scoring, with the Fighting Illini putting the clamps on Houston in a 65-55 victory.
“On Friday, UConn covering against Michigan State and Tennessee winning outright against Iowa State were good,” Degnon said. “It would’ve been a winning weekend anyway, but the UConn comeback was the cherry on top.”
And even with Caesars on the wrong end of a seven-figure swing in the UConn-Duke game, the weekend as a whole fell in its favor.
“Overall, we’re quite pleased with the four days. One of the things that helped us out was the Unders in both Saturday games,” Zanco said.
Illinois topped Iowa 71-59, well short of the 138.5 total, and Arizona beat Purdue 74-59, a handful of points short of the 152.5 total.
Caesars also benefited from Duke’s 80-75 win over St. John’s in the Sweet 16 on Friday, with the Red Storm a liability in the championship futures market. Tennessee knocking out Iowa State 76-62 on Friday was helpful, as well.
“UConn over Duke was bittersweet. But overall, the weekend was good,” Zanco said.
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