Favorites went haywire in March Madness odds on Friday and Saturday. At one point, they won 20 consecutive games — all 16 on Friday and the first four on Saturday.
And the public betting masses got paid, often via moneyline parlays on those favorites.
But all it takes to turn the tide is one big team to tumble.
On Sunday, defending national champion and No. 1 seed Florida was that team, changing the tenor of the weekend battle between bettors and bookmakers.
“That stopped the barrage of favorite bettors and moneyline parlays,” Caesars Sports head of basketball trading Rich Zanco said. “Iowa winning was a huge need. It saved the day.”
More on the weekend that was, as multiple oddsmakers recap betting on NCAA Tournament odds.
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Florida Fallout
Florida rode a late-season 12-0 stretch to the No. 1 seed in the South Region. Even after a surprising loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semis, the Gators seemed ready for a deep run in defense of their 2025 national title.
Florida opened the NCAA Tournament with an expected blowout, trouncing No. 16 seed Prairie View 114-55 as a massive 35.5-point favorite.
But upstart No. 9 seed Iowa, a 10.5-point underdog, was having none of that on Sunday.
The Hawkeyes led the Gators 51-39 six minutes into the second half. Florida then made a run, and it was a back-and-forth over the final seven minutes. But Alvaro Folgueiras’ 3-pointer with four seconds left gave Iowa a shocking 73-72 upset.
It was the shot heard ‘round the world for bookmakers.
“It was one-way action on Florida. And there were a lot of Florida parlays on the moneyline and the spread,” Zanco said. “Obviously, Iowa winning and knocking Florida out of the championship futures is pretty significant.”
Zanco noted that just before tipoff, Caesars Sports took a “significant” six-figure wager on Florida -10.
John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook, echoed Zanco’s comments.
“That’s a great outcome for us. All the moneyline parlay liability was building to Florida and Arizona,” Murray said. “It’s great to get Florida out of the futures book, as well. That was huge for us.”
The Gators were one of The SuperBook’s largest championship liabilities.
“I don’t want to get to the Final Four and have Florida and Duke still there,” Murray said.
So Murray has half his wish granted so far. Duke barely dodged a massive first-round upset, beating No. 16 seed Siena 71-65, after trailing at halftime 43-32.
But the Blue Devils had no issue in the second round, thumping No. 9 seed TCU 81-58.
Playing Favorites
Every year, the public masses enjoy taking an underdog or two in the first round or two of the NCAA Tournament. Everyone likes a good upset and potential Cinderella story.
But mind you, those are generally straight bets on moneyline ‘dogs. A single bet on a single team.
In March Madness odds, moneyline parlays are very popular over the first four days, much like on an NFL Sunday. And the public isn’t taking underdogs in moneyline parlays. It’s all favorites, all the time.
As noted above, all 16 Friday favorites won — and oh, by the way, went 12-4 against the spread. Then the first four favorites on Saturday won and covered: Michigan, Michigan State, Duke and Houston, who were all popular selections in moneyline parlays.
So that’s a favorites’ run of 20-0 straight up (SU) and 16-4 against the spread (ATS). It was a boon for public bettors and a bust for bookmakers.
“Do ‘dogs ever win?” a perplexed Murray said at one point Saturday, while giving flowers to his customers. “You can’t even blame them. It’s hard to knock a winning strategy. They’re cleaning up.”
Added Zanco: “The barrage of favorites kept rolling in, and we couldn’t buy an underdog. Bettors especially had success on Saturday with Michigan and Michigan State, and then rolled it into the Duke game.”
No. 1 seed Michigan ran away from No. 9 St. Louis in the second half, posting a 95-72 rout as a 12.5-point favorite. No. 3 seed Michigan State topped No. 6 Louisville 77-69 as a 5.5-point favorite, and as noted above, Duke blasted TCU 81-58 as a 12.5-point favorite.
“Bettors did extremely well Saturday,” Zanco said.
Bettors Win Battles, Bookies Win War
Friday’s 16-0 SU/12-4 ATS run by favorites wasn’t all good news for bettors. Multiple oddsmakers cited two outcomes that actually helped sportsbooks get a win for the day.
No. 10 seed Santa Clara was a trendy underdog with the public, getting 3.5 points vs. No. 7 Kentucky. Allen Graves hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left to give the Broncos a 73-70 lead, seemingly securing the modest upset.
But Kentucky’s Otega Oweh followed with a 32-footer at the buzzer to tie it at 73 and force overtime. And as is often said in the betting world: Overtime is where underdogs go to die.
Kentucky ultimately won 89-84 to cover as a 3.5-point favorite.
“We needed Kentucky big,” SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said. “And that was a miracle cover from Central Florida +5.5. That was a big swing for us.”
No. 10 UCF trailed No. 7 UCLA 71-62 with just 35 seconds left but ultimately lost by just four, 75-71, to cover the number.
When all the dust settled Sunday night, Zanco had no complaints with Caesars’ haul over the first four days of March Madness odds.
“Overall, considering the results — the run of favorites winning and covering — I’m quite pleased with the way things shook out,” he said.
Ditto for Murray and The SuperBook.
“We should end up doing pretty well overall. I’m happy with it,” he said. “We had our share of close games and excitement. We had some lucky games and were fortunate to get some covers.
“We’re ready for the Sweet 16.”
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